Thread

1. roenxi · 1790756315 · focus · HN ↗

   > Every generation believes it is living through the end of something.

   Many generations are. Last century saw the collapse of the British and Soviet empires - titans by any measure - through mismanagement. Europe as an international power was also broken (compared to how they used to be). I can easily imagine 1900s me fleeing to America in fear of the end times and feeling quite justified in his choices with hindsight. Less obvious where to run to these days as the US not-an-empire looks like it may crumble.

   Most of the people who died didn't get an opportunity to complain, so we live with some serious survivorship bias on how bad things got.

   1. Maxion · 1790756968 · focus · HN ↗

      > Less obvious where to run to these days as the US not-an-empire looks like it may crumble.

      Depending on what you're running for China is in some senses kinda what the US was back in the day, except there's no land so no easy way for them to accept migrants. These day and age migrants also aren't very accepted anywhere.

      1. weinzierl · 1790758027 · focus · HN ↗

         I agree in a sense, and the writing for this has been on the wall for some time. In my circles, many learned some Mandarin at one point or another.

         The difference from the past is that the US has always been a melting pot, while China is pretty much a closed society. If you’d emigrated to the US, you always had a good chance of blending into that diverse society no matter where you came from. Assimilating into the homogeneous Chinese society will take generations.

         For me it’ll be either the westernmost end of Europe or one of the better parts of South America, in the hope that they will prosper modestly in the shadows of the upcoming conflicts.

         1. vidarh · 1790759355 · focus · HN ↗

            I'm very curious how China will adapt over the next couple of decades. Their population has started contracting, and it's clear the government has seen the fertility rate as a problem for some time. There's no obvious way for them to keep economic growth going without either finding a solution to something nobody else has managed to solve (getting the fertility rate back up), or opening up for more immigration. Either will take significant changes.

            1. pjc50 · 1790761204 · focus · HN ↗

               > finding a solution to something nobody else has managed to solve

               In the 21st century, that is definitely something I'd bet on China for being able to do. Across all sorts of problems.

               The solution is going to be paying people. No, more than that. No, keep going. Higher. Market-clearing price.

               1. ben_w · 1790764072 · focus · HN ↗

                  That's a capitalist solution; China has that option if they want it, but also they have those "reeducation" camps so it could get very Handmaid's Tale.
               2. vidarh · 1790768560 · focus · HN ↗

                  The question is how high that price is, and whether it is viable. We don't know. And secondly, whether or not the consequences will be workable for a cohesive society whether because women choose to have children only for financial reasons or get coerced into it for the same reasons.

                  It could get very dark very quickly if it turns out to be too hard to induce enough people who actually would want children under the right circumstances to choose to have them.

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