Thread

1. rgmerk · 1790747861 · focus · HN ↗

   Look, I get that Elon wants to chase AI, but why not do relatively simple, low-cost things like build a proper 7-seat SUV that uses the Cybertruck platform - or even a properly stretched Model Y platform (rather than the six-seater L)? Or how about a delivery van on a stretched Y platform?

   Tesla's product line is narrow and aging rapidly.

   1. fooker · 1790748992 · focus · HN ↗

      This will get TSLA valued as a car company.

      They want to be valued as a ~~scifi~~ tech company.

      Which is fair, given that the market (and by extension we) chose to brutally punish boring car companies that make reliable high volume cars.

      1. Gud · 1790751876 · focus · HN ↗

         And by punish you mean fairly value?

         1. fooker · 1790753161 · focus · HN ↗

            I think you missed my point.

            I'm arguing that the fair value of boring companies making reliable things should be much higher. We don't do that, you have to promise hot air based growth to prevent your valuation from crashing.

            The behavior we incentivize is the one we'll get.

            1. jjav · 1790759950 · focus · HN ↗

               > I'm arguing that the fair value of boring companies making reliable things should be much higher.

               In theory (occasionally in practice) when you purchase a stock you are purchasing a piece of the future cash flow of that company. For a company which operates in a known environment and we can roughly predict how their revenue will grow (i.e. boring companies), the correct fair value of the stock can be easily computed.

               So, no, those predictable companies should not be valued much higher, they are already valued correctly because the are no big surprises in their future, the profits and revenue are predictable.

               This logic breaks down with companies where the growth can't be predicted to any reasonable accuracy. So in those you're just buying the hype, which sometimes turns out to be real, sometimes not.

               Unfortunately this also incentivizes some companies to pump themselves purely on hype so they never get valued on actual revenue and profit. Tesla is a prime example of this. If you value them as a car company we can easily compute a fair value, but that number is very low. So, instead, robots! AI! self-driving! Space! That keeps the fair value an unknown, so it can ride the wave of hype for a long time.

               1. jasomill · 1790770588 · focus · HN ↗

                  Did I miss something? Tesla is developing spacecraft?

                  1. bryanlarsen · 1790783281 · focus · HN ↗

                     Rumors of a merger with SpaceX is one of the things pushing up TSLA.

                     1. ASalazarMX · 1790797508 · focus · HN ↗

                        SPCX is the teat from where all other Elon's side projects feed (or will feed), it seems. I hope he doesn't ruin it.

                        1. bryanlarsen · 1790805106 · focus · HN ↗

                           Starship and Starlink are prerequisites for the silly Starmind, so I don't think they'll quite as badly destroy their core competency as they are doing at Tesla.

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