Thread

1. preisschild · 1790751984 · focus · HN ↗

   The BWRX-300 footprint is so large they might as well just build large nuclear power units again and get 3-4x the power

   1. nine_k · 1790754444 · focus · HN ↗

      I don't think that the footprint is the key factor. Likely the total construction cost is. A large reactor may have a better cost per kWh, averaged over decades of its lifetime, but a smaller reactor likely has a more affordable upfront cost.

      1. jillesvangurp · 1790762848 · focus · HN ↗

         The key point with small modular reactors vs. reactors like this is that construction happens in factories rather than on site. Theoretically, you might get some economies of scale from series production in a factory that is much harder to get doing bespoke construction projects. Which is why historically, nuclear projects tend to blow through their cost estimates and why having larger reactors makes that a bit more tolerable. Of course until somebody actually does this and scales to hundreds/thousands of reactors production, this is all theoretical.

         This particular reactor is already estimated at over 5 billion $ I think. That's a lot of money for just 300MW and it probably could end up being a wildly optimistic estimate as well. I think effectively much of the construction is still on site and not in a factory. Hence the need for a construction permit. So, you get all of the downsides of complex on site construction such as including high cost, permitting overhead, lots of bureaucracy, associated delays & uncertainty, etc. without the upside of actually delivering a lot of power like you would with a larger reaction. Calling it "modular" might be overstating things a bit.

         Probably cheaper, faster, and easier to just plonk down 5GW of solar, wind, or battery (or combinations of those). Especially if you calculate in the 200-300% time and dollar budget that many nuclear projects seem to end up having. Maybe this one will be different. A lot of people have a lot riding on Nuclear projects breaking this trend. But then that has been the case for decades.

         1. mixdup · 1790772937 · focus · HN ↗

            This one may be $5 billion, but the next one will probably be (made up number) $3 billion, and the next one $1 billion

            Part of the point of these projects in particular is to get the machine spinning. Once it's running you start getting some of the economies of scale

            1. ViewTrick1002 · 1790775436 · focus · HN ↗

               This assumes learning rates never seen by nuclear energy. Within generations we've seen small learnings, and between generations the nuclear energy has been all negative learning by doing.

               1. mixdup · 1790776834 · focus · HN ↗

                  But that is literally why they want to get to assembly line levels of throughput. Dozens of identical reactors instead of dozens of bespoke reactors that can't use learnings from the last one

                  Also not said is the fact that going into more standardized designs you lower the operational cost because operations can be standardized. Today every single facility has different training from the next. Even at the same facility, if it's got new + old reactors, operators can't move between them without training on both

                  1. ViewTrick1002 · 1790841304 · focus · HN ↗

                     How many hundreds of billions or trillions should we waste to get ”learnings” when renewables and storage is already the cheapest energy source in human history?

                     This line of thinking seems to start with that we must have new nuclear, for some reason, and then try to rationalize it.

                     1. leonidasrup · 1790864521 · focus · HN ↗

                        Hundreds of billions have already been spend on learning renewables in Germany.

                        <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;321765366_How_expensive_is_an_energy_transition_A_lesson_from_the_German_Energiewende" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.researchgate.net&#x2F;publication&#x2F;321765366_How_expen...

                        1. triceratops · 1790873400 · focus · HN ↗

                           Can&#x27;t unspend that money. GP is asking whether it&#x27;s worth spending additional money.

                           1. leonidasrup · 1790883996 · focus · HN ↗

                              It makes quite sense to ask, how much did get Germany for the money it spend.

                              In term of decarbonization of electricity production and independence of imported fuel for electricity production, it got less then France for comparable amount of money.

                              But this is quite clear as the first and foremost goal of German Energiewende was denuclearization of German electricity production, not decarbonization of electricity production.

                              1. [deleted] · 1790931312 · focus · HN ↗

                                 [deleted]

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