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NRC issues first U.S. construction permit for a BWRX-300 small modular reactor

151 points · 191 comments · papa-whisky

  1. testing22321 · · focus · HN ↗
    Place your bets now.

    Time until first power generated, and actual final total cost.

    I’ll go 15 years and $10 Billion.

    1. mpweiher · · focus · HN ↗
      How certain are you of your prediction? What odds would you give me if I bet against you?

      10:1?

      100:1?

      Background:

      The BWRX predecessor, the ABWR, holds the record for the fastest construction time of a commercial nuclear power plant ever: just slightly over 3 years to first criticality, 4 years total to commercial operation.

      Fun fact: it was the success of this first Gen III reactor that caused EDF to predict the EPRs would also only take 3 years to build. Which proved...optimistic. For the EPR. But proven for the ABWR.

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Advanced_boiling_water_reactor" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Advanced_boiling_water_reactor

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Pow...

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hannahritchie.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;nuclear-construction-time" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hannahritchie.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;nuclear-construction-ti...

      The BWRX is also passively safe: cooling occurs via natural circulation, no pumps needed.

      So if it takes 15 years I give you $100, if it takes less you give me $10000?

      Deal?

      1. roryirvine · · focus · HN ↗
        Sadly, the ABWR has also proven to be unreliable and uneconomic.

        Hitachi spent most of the 2010s trying to get a couple of them underway in the UK (which has a generally favourable regulatory environment) but eventually pulled out after 12 years with £2bn spent and nothing built.

        Maybe the BWRX will have better luck - but I&#x27;d not want to stake any money on it myself.

        1. mpweiher · · focus · HN ↗
          &gt; Sadly, the ABWR has also proven to be unreliable and uneconomic.

          Citation needed.

          &gt; Hitachi spent most of the 2010s trying to get a couple of them underway in the UK

          That&#x27;s not evidence of them being uneconomic or unreliable.

          &gt; (which has a generally favourable regulatory environment)

          Excuse me? The regulatory environment that is responsible for the 7000 design changes at Hinkley Point C and thus most of the eye-watering delays and cost overruns? The regulatory environment that required the £ 700 million &quot;fish disco&quot; that will save a few salmon at a cost of around £ 280000 per fish?

          A series of &quot;radical, root-cause solutions&quot; is required to simplify the UK&#x27;s nuclear regulatory system in order to speed up the construction of new nuclear projects at a lower cost and on time, an independent taskforce has concluded.

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.world-nuclear-news.org&#x2F;articles&#x2F;radical_reforms_needed_to_UK_nuclear_regulation_says_taskforce" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.world-nuclear-news.org&#x2F;articles&#x2F;radical_reforms_...

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