Thread

NRC issues first U.S. construction permit for a BWRX-300 small modular reactor

151 points · 191 comments · papa-whisky

testing22321 · 1790741363 · focus · HN ↗
Place your bets now.
Time until first power generated, and actual final total cost.
I’ll go 15 years and $10 Billion.
1. mpweiher · 1790753387 · focus · HN ↗
  How certain are you of your prediction? What odds would you give me if I bet against you?
  10:1?
  100:1?
  Background:
  The BWRX predecessor, the ABWR, holds the record for the fastest construction time of a commercial nuclear power plant ever: just slightly over 3 years to first criticality, 4 years total to commercial operation.
  Fun fact: it was the success of this first Gen III reactor that caused EDF to predict the EPRs would also only take 3 years to build. Which proved...optimistic. For the EPR. But proven for the ABWR.
  <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_boiling_water_reactor" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_boiling_water_reactor
  <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Power_Plant" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashiwazaki-Kariwa_Nuclear_Pow...
  <a href="https://hannahritchie.substack.com/p/nuclear-construction-time" rel="nofollow">https://hannahritchie.substack.com/p/nuclear-construction-ti...
  The BWRX is also passively safe: cooling occurs via natural circulation, no pumps needed.
  So if it takes 15 years I give you $100, if it takes less you give me $10000?
  Deal?
  1. jfengel · 1790769735 · focus · HN ↗
    I think that when people casually pronounce a bet like that, they generally mean even odds. If they meant something else they'd likely say so explicitly.
    mpweiher · 1790837186 · focus · HN ↗
    My apologies, I left out a step, or more precisely, folded two steps into one.
    The way it usually goes with anti-nuclear activists when they make pronouncements like this is as follows:
    1. It will take at least 15 years and cost 100 gazillion dollars
    2. Are you sure?
    3. Yes, this is 100% what will happen. It is 100% certain, because nuclear does not and cannot work.
    4. OK, then let's put some money where our mouths are. Your 100% certainty means you should be willing to give me infinite odds, because any money I put up is automatically yours. Completely risk free income for you. But I am happy to reduce those odds to just 100:1, so I put up $100 and you put up $10.000.
    6. <crickets>
    crote · 1790842217 · focus · HN ↗
    Okay, let's follow that logic. I am willing to bet $1 that there will be construction delays and that there will be cost overruns. How many millions are you willing to bet that there will be absolutely zero delays and overruns?
    If those reactors are so fantastic, surely you wouldn't hesitate at a chance to get some free money - no matter how little?
    mpweiher · 1790849981 · focus · HN ↗
    What you did there has nothing to do with logic.
    Something not being 100% certain does not imply the opposite being 100% certain.

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