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Livenerf: Has Opus 5.5 been nerfed yet?

922 points · 392 comments · bryan0

  1. aabhay · · focus · HN ↗
    Only ten day interval? I felt Astra got nerfed within a week
    1. ninjahawk1 · · focus · HN ↗
      The 10-day window is mainly a tradeoff between sensitivity and detection speed. Shorter windows give faster results but are much noisier; longer windows give more statistical power but could take weeks to flag a change.

      Also, it isn’t comparing one 10-day period once and calling it done. The window rolls forward daily, and a change has to clear the pre-registered 99% threshold in two consecutive windows before it’s flagged.

      Ten days isn’t sacred, though. Once there’s enough longitudinal data, one of the things I want to evaluate is whether that window length is actually well calibrated or should be changed in a future version.

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