Thread

1. glimshe · 1790712211 · focus · HN ↗

   Should we blame this on memory companies or the AI companies bidding for memory? How should the memory companies have acted differently?

   1. swdev281634 · 1790713778 · focus · HN ↗

      I think the epic mistake was made by investors and executives who bought tales about imminent super-intelligence about to displace millions of knowledge workers from entire industries replacing them with AI datacentres.

      These people are the main reason why AI companies have unlimited funding, and can afford to buy global RAM supply for years in the future despite their expenses exceed revenue by billions.

      1. benced · 1790715271 · focus · HN ↗

         You can short them and make a lot of money (to buy RAM with?) if you feel this way and are correct.

         1. demibabs · 1790715908 · focus · HN ↗

            No?

            Shorting doesn’t only require you to be right. It requires perfectly timing when the market will realize you’re right.

            1. dist-epoch · 1790716071 · focus · HN ↗

               You can buy long term put options.

               1. philipov · 1790716604 · focus · HN ↗

                  That still requires perfect timing. Getting the timing right on a long-term contract is even harder than with a short-term contract!

                  1. dcrazy · 1790719018 · focus · HN ↗

                     The point of LEAPS is you don’t have to perfect the timing. You buy far enough out to avoid theta decay, and far enough out of the money to minimize risk.

                     1. philipov · 1790719137 · focus · HN ↗

                        Regardless of timing, for shorts to pay out requires the market to actually correct itself. You won't be able to get your magical shorts money until the price of ram goes back down anyway. The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

                        1. dcrazy · 1790719800 · focus · HN ↗

                           The price of RAM does not need to come down in order for a way-out-of-the-money January 2027 put on NVDA to increase in value from its current purchase price.

                           1. tom_alexander · 1790721357 · focus · HN ↗

                              You're suggesting gambling that Nvidia will start to fall within the next 3 months? That sounds like requiring perfect timing to me.

                              1. dcrazy · 1790728171 · focus · HN ↗

                                 Ack, typo! I meant January 2029. That’s how far out the options chain goes.

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