Thread

1. bunderbunder · 1790711630 · focus · HN ↗

   They talk a bit about where the AI companies are supposed to get their revenue from. I’d like to see these analyses go a step further and talk about how those AI customers are supposed to come up with that money as well.

   For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.

   Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?

   1. lopsotronic · 1790793896 · focus · HN ↗

      I deeply suspect that the oligarchs are seeking for a way - all the ways - that they can preserve their wealth through the collapse of USD Seigniorage thanks to its reserve currency status[1]. The romance of superintelligence is window dressing, as a double-snake-eyes bet on owning the posthuman.

      Exchanging USD-tied assets and securities for ownership in physical infrastructure, water, land, energy.

      Another strategy is exchanging USD-tied assets for hunks of governmental power or to get shares of the governmental monopoly of force. We're seeing this, as well. Have been seeing this, but it's accelerating at a dizzy pace.

      In many ways, the AI infrastructure play assumes this piece to be a given, because the same infrastructure is still costed in USD-denominated debt. Governmental power will allow for that debt to be dealt with opaquely.

      On the other hand, who knows, maybe they will manage to build Cyber Jesus / MechaHitler. No pricing that in.

      [1] Ok ok ok strictly, seigniorage is the profit from issuing currency: the gap between what it costs to create a dollar and what it buys. This is broader. It's the "exorbitant privilege" of reserve-currency status: the world accepts US liabilities (cash, Treasuries, dollar deposits) as savings, so the US can run persistent deficits at low borrowing costs. This system is on the very brink, in the early stages, of collapse - every financial indicator is pointed at the same direction: petrodollar recycling to US compute and power through vehicles like Stargate, Abu Dhabi's MGX, and Saudi PIF commitments; Japan and Korea 2025 trade deals are directed at US physical industry rather than bond purchases; 2022 Russian bond freezes showed the danger; every central bank on the planet is blowing up the physical gold market.

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.