Thread

1. Lerc · 1790715001 · focus · HN ↗

   I think the statement is the wrong one.

   I think their claim they can make, assuming their evidence is true, is

   "AI needs $6T in annual revenue for every investment in AI to be profitable"

   I think some people will make a lot of money and more people will lose a lot of money.

   Most of those investing know this, they are taking the risk of losing a lot to attempt to be one of the ones that make a lot.

   A lot of early internet tech companies went bust, a few became extremely successful. At the time I would see high valuations and ask "Yes, but how do they make money". Most of those with an unclear answer to that question are not around now. The ones who had a tangible plan to make money, even if they were making a loss at the time, tended to survive.

   There is a lot of Dumb money going into AI, when that is the dumb money of wealthy individuals, I am more than happy to let them receive no return while paying for infrastructure. There's a problem when the dumb money comes from dumb individuals who are routing money from others who do not have a say in how it gets invested.

   That is not an AI specific problem, that is a problem where people can make decisions where others carry the risk without their consent. That is the problem that needs to be met head on.

   1. empath75 · 1790717402 · focus · HN ↗

      > I think some people will make a lot of money and more people will lose a lot of money.

      ---

      Yeah, this is exactly right. The numbers look impossible because they _are_ impossible. The _vast majority_ of AI spend is wasted and the vast majority of AI companies are going to go bankrupt. There are _still_ going to be unimaginable amounts of wealth earned by the survivors.

      1. Lerc · 1790719040 · focus · HN ↗

         >The _vast majority_ of AI spend is wasted

         I don't think this part is correct. It is spent on things. There will be a quantity that will go training models that do not contribute research data or active use that you could say that the resources were wasted. If the money is spent on infrastructure or the resulting models found active use (or provided research insights) then I don't think you can say that the money has been wasted.

         I think a large proportion of the advances in AI that have come in the last year have come from being able to see the models from the previous year in action.

         That does not guarantee that money will be returned to investors, Just that it wasn't wasted.

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