Thread

1. vdombr · 1790714818 · focus · HN ↗

   It's been almost half a year since we got powerful enough models, and I'm wondering, where are all those great things that were created with them? Maybe it's just me, but nothing has changed in my life so far. No improvements, but definitely, I need to be more careful when reading, listening, watching, and using things, as bad quality slowly creeps everywhere.

   1. cm2187 · 1790718498 · focus · HN ↗

      Strongly disagree, and I am one of those who believe this is a bubble.

      At home, Claude has been a god send to make it easy to learn using linux, and all sort of technologies. My personal learning curve has gone steep at an age where people start flattening out (40s).

      At work, we use AI to automate 50-75% of our work. Better quality output, more productivity. I work in a bank. But the average plumber or electrician benefits too. In minutes they can become an expert into some tech they never touched before.

      I thought crypto was bullshit, web 3.0 [corrected] was bullshit, meta-universe was bullshit. AI is bubbly, not sure how you can justify multi-trillon valuations for companies with 80% operating margin in a competitive market where you can switch to the competitor with a drop down. But the productivity gains will be massive for the economy. I think the economy will ultimately reap the reward, not so much the labs. But I may be wrong.

      1. wombatpm · 1790719833 · focus · HN ↗

         I don’t think all of the data centers will ever be built. In that respect I see this bubble like the railroad building bubble of the 1800’s. A lot of data centers are going to end up in bankruptcy and sold for losses to a second round of investors.

         I expect Open AI or Anthropic to make it through. XAI will go back to being a side hustle for SpaceX. And some open weight model will run on your own hardware or AWS. Copilot will remain a piece of trash and Gemini will be an untrusted 4th option.

         1. anukin · 1790803165 · focus · HN ↗

            I hope the chips are at least procured. When the bubble pops I would like to make a home rig which can run a 1tb model easily and then play games as well.
      2. pessimizer · 1790720288 · focus · HN ↗

         > At home, Claude has been a god send to make it easy to learn using linux, and all sort of technologies. My personal learning curve has gone steep at an age where people start flattening out (40s).

         Your own personal learning curve has also gone up when, if your thesis is correct, it is useless for it to have gone up because it is a skill that we may not need anyone to use, and we definitely won't need someone who learned it last week to use.

         That's more of what people mean by no revenue. I'm actually bullish on some revenue coming in from language learning, because in-ear translation will always have a delay and involves constantly wearing equipment, but Linux learning seems like a big zero if models are supposed to be good enough to essentially replace OS UI.

         > But the average plumber or electrician benefits too. In minutes they can become an expert into some tech they never touched before.

         They're already fine at learning from the manual. They have a lot of background. The AI will 1) only annoy them with how much it gets wrong, and 2) not give them any practice with the things they have to learn with their hands. They may be helped by AI powered robotics.

      3. latexr · 1790727209 · focus · HN ↗

         > But the average plumber or electrician benefits too. In minutes they can become an expert into some tech they never touched before.

         No one “becomes an expert in minutes” at anything more complex than tic-tac-toe, that’s just absurd. If you don’t understand the thing without needing a chatbot, you’re not an expert.

         1. rff2 · 1790727620 · focus · HN ↗

            Stupid post by him TBH.

            Electricians etc want to generate more income. They dont want to start building their own apps - someone else will take care of that.

            Its jarring how bad some posts are on here. But then again, that's why most are employees not the employer.

         2. MrToadMan · 1790733193 · focus · HN ↗

            To add to that, I don’t think many employers will be happy about their legal exposure to inadequate training and supervision when things go wrong if this is the sort of training people are resorting to. Especially if insurers are excluding coverage for losses arising from the use of generative AI, as seems to be happening.
      4. TimByte · 1790780815 · focus · HN ↗

         Quickly pulling up a manual through a chatbot offers only a surface-level grasp of an unfamiliar task

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