Thread

1. bunderbunder · 1790711630 · focus · HN ↗

   They talk a bit about where the AI companies are supposed to get their revenue from. I’d like to see these analyses go a step further and talk about how those AI customers are supposed to come up with that money as well.

   For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.

   Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?

   1. user43928 · 1790716947 · focus · HN ↗

      The global GDP is $126T, a 5% productivity increase would correspond to $6.3T.

      So, I have the following thoughts:

      How much more productive can AI for knowledge work realistically make the global economy? 5%, 10%, 20%?

      What if it also does robotics soon and can be deployed in manufacturing and construction? Can we get 50% more productive, or 200%?

      Then there's science, medicine, and so on. Who is to say what happens if AI solves also that?

      While I do not know if AI will be capable for these use cases, I see no reason to believe it unlikely that AI could be applicable to eg. robotics and speed up production by factor 3x.

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