Thread

1. bunderbunder · 1790711630 · focus · HN ↗

   They talk a bit about where the AI companies are supposed to get their revenue from. I’d like to see these analyses go a step further and talk about how those AI customers are supposed to come up with that money as well.

   For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.

   Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?

   1. ItsMattyG · 1790712810 · focus · HN ↗

      it seems fairly obvious to me that once ai becomes as good as a worker, people will pay a workers wages to use it - 24/7, can't quit, can't complain that badly, no lunch breaks

      productivity tooling replaces employees

      1. scottLobster · 1790713955 · focus · HN ↗

         So we're talking about the complete destruction of the consumer economy.

         Hard to see how Google or Facebook keeps their advertising models in that environment. There aren't enough construction workers and data scientists to buy everything.

         1. ItsMattyG · 1790714451 · focus · HN ↗

            they won't need their advertising models because they'll have a new oligopoly on ai, and make the money directly from b2b

            which yes, will completely destroy the consumer economy and social structures and current forms of governance

            1. TheOtherHobbes · 1790714598 · focus · HN ↗

               If it's any consolation, in the end it will destroy capitalism too.

               1. ItsMattyG · 1790715609 · focus · HN ↗

                  true, and humanity may all be dead due to rogue ai or speciation, so maybe there'd be no humans around to care

                  1. vconnor · 1790718375 · focus · HN ↗

                     But for a beautiful minute, everybody could one shot a dog food recipe website without knowing anything about HTML.
               2. MentalM · 1790720216 · focus · HN ↗

                  > If it's any consolation, in the end it will destroy capitalism too.

                  That is hardly will be of any consolation. AI will probably destroy capitalism, but not because it will replace some useless f.ucks from their useless computer jobs (most of them will perfectly fine find another more useful job, if only way less paid), but because with surveillance and totalitarian control that AI capable of, socialists like Stalin or Hitler will build resilient and durable society where no member will have any way for resisting.

                  1. scottLobster · 1790732688 · focus · HN ↗

                     Odd that you mention that, China is afraid of exactly the opposite. Their systems are so centralized for surveillance purposes that an AI seriously breaching their systems could destroy their control.

                     1. MentalM · 1790776542 · focus · HN ↗

                        Of course it is afraid, and because of that AI will be banned for many use cases and severely regulated by the government for other use cases.

                        That is like one of the first steps to build the ultimate totalitarian regime. In the USSR bolsheviks were grate proponents of civilian weapons right until they have got power. And then civilian weapons were banned.

         2. MentalM · 1790719548 · focus · HN ↗

            > There aren't enough construction workers and data scientists to buy everything.

            There will be, when two third of the office workers will be replaced by AI.

            It is astounding why so many people does not understand how consumer economy works. I think it is more a matter of the copium, because, well, it is generally hard to accept the truth that in five years you will have to haul bricks as a job, and the guy who used to put that bricks on one another and make three times less than you in your tech job now will be your new boss.

            And advertising models in that environment? Why should something changed for it?

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.