Thread

1. bunderbunder · 1790711630 · focus · HN ↗

   They talk a bit about where the AI companies are supposed to get their revenue from. I’d like to see these analyses go a step further and talk about how those AI customers are supposed to come up with that money as well.

   For example, the article suggests $1T from enterprise productivity tooling. A quick Google suggests the global enterprise productivity tooling market is only worth about $0.1T right now.

   Do we really expect all the world’s corporations to suddenly up their annual spend by 1,000% on average? Why?

   1. herf · 1790712297 · focus · HN ↗

      Total software developer comp (worldwide) is ~$1T

      1. hirako2000 · 1790713532 · focus · HN ↗

         And that's why those CEO keeps promoting the threat AI may displace many white collar jobs, not just developers.

         They already figured they would need trillions revenue. So they paint an economic where such amount is plausible.

      2. wnmurphy · 1790716186 · focus · HN ↗

         Yes, and it's $30T when you include all knowledge worker roles.
      3. throwaway0q5347 · 1790716244 · focus · HN ↗

         Information worker compensation might be something like 14T total.

         A ~40% reduction in employee compensation to source 6T, globally, seems a little more plausible.

         Clearly, I'm eliding a ton of complexity/nuance.

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