Thread

1. gradus_ad · 1790701889 · focus · HN ↗

   Ominous for the industry and investors that token price is becoming the main battleground. Could be Anthropic's rationale for IPOing this year.

   1. mixdup · 1790702708 · focus · HN ↗

      Another piece of evidence on the pile that the sudden panic and desire to "slow down" is because they're hitting the plateau on capability

      Which, honestly, is fine. A lot of juice to squeeze in efficiency and even if models got zero more capable, making the capability that is already here cheaper is a huge win for everyone (except Nvidia)

      1. luma · 1790705106 · focus · HN ↗

         Some version of this claim has been made for the past 4 years. There's a data cliff, there's no more compute to buy, the financials don't make sense and all of these orgs will be out of business by end of quarter.

         Not once has any of these predictions come true, the pace of progress has continued on it's exponential trajectory since ChatGPT first came to the public's attention.

         So why now? What is special about today that suggests all of this is coming to a screeching halt despite all evidence to the contrary?

         1. dgellow · 1790705665 · focus · HN ↗

            Those points were true at the time and most are still true now. But they aren’t predictions.

            - it’s correct there isn’t much fresh data anymore

            - it’s correct that compute is scarce, that was 100% the case and a huge issue at the beginning of the year, it is better now but still scarce, and hardware is now way, way more expensive

            - it’s correct the finances don’t make sense

            But there is no way to know when a bubble pop, because it’s a psychological phenomenon across an extremely complicated distributed system (ie the stock and bonds markets)

            1. agoodusername63 · 1790721743 · focus · HN ↗

               The amount of irrationality I see in the economy with AI makes me more convinced that the wall street bankrollers know very well they're throwing money into a pit, but it's a pit they're gambling will turn into some world hunger ending AI (that will somehow also keep them making money off of scarcity)

               never mind that theres no guarantee we'll get that mythical AI. Never mind that the societal reformations would also impact their revenue numbers.

               1. dgellow · 1790758659 · focus · HN ↗

                  I’m pretty convinced Wall Street is clueless and relies mostly on vibes. It’s the same people who thought all SaaS would become unnecessary after seeing a Claude code demo. Though eventually they will have to ask for the ROI, and that’s where the whole thing will calm down

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