Thread

1. gradus_ad · 1790701889 · focus · HN ↗

   Ominous for the industry and investors that token price is becoming the main battleground. Could be Anthropic's rationale for IPOing this year.

   1. mixdup · 1790702708 · focus · HN ↗

      Another piece of evidence on the pile that the sudden panic and desire to "slow down" is because they're hitting the plateau on capability

      Which, honestly, is fine. A lot of juice to squeeze in efficiency and even if models got zero more capable, making the capability that is already here cheaper is a huge win for everyone (except Nvidia)

      1. serf · 1790703037 · focus · HN ↗

         >Another piece of evidence on the pile that the sudden panic and desire to "slow down" is because they're hitting the plateau on capability

         if true then LLM related AI (post-post AI winter AI?) is probably one of the fastest inception-to-plateau tech sectors to have ever existed.

         We're still improving transistors on a somewhat routine basis.

         1. mixdup · 1790703206 · focus · HN ↗

            The plateau doesn't have to be perfectly flat, but it's not a straight line upward anymore either (kind of like our work on transistors, where we've kind of hit the bounds of speed in clock cycles but are improving on miniaturization and power efficiency)

            1. password54321 · 1790703599 · focus · HN ↗

               It took 5 years to solve ARC-AGI 1, 1 year to solve ARC-AGI 2 and 6 months to solve ARC-AGI 3.

               1. delillos · 1790704498 · focus · HN ↗

                  Those version numbers don't necessarily correspond to equal increases in "difficulty", though.

                  1. JacobAsmuth · 1790707007 · focus · HN ↗

                     Very true, the sharp increase in difficulty (as measured by human passrate plummeting from 1->2 and again from 2->3) gives an even more stark view of AI capabilities over time.

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