Thread

1. gradus_ad · 1790701889 · focus · HN ↗

   Ominous for the industry and investors that token price is becoming the main battleground. Could be Anthropic's rationale for IPOing this year.

   1. mixdup · 1790702708 · focus · HN ↗

      Another piece of evidence on the pile that the sudden panic and desire to "slow down" is because they're hitting the plateau on capability

      Which, honestly, is fine. A lot of juice to squeeze in efficiency and even if models got zero more capable, making the capability that is already here cheaper is a huge win for everyone (except Nvidia)

      1. luma · 1790705106 · focus · HN ↗

         Some version of this claim has been made for the past 4 years. There's a data cliff, there's no more compute to buy, the financials don't make sense and all of these orgs will be out of business by end of quarter.

         Not once has any of these predictions come true, the pace of progress has continued on it's exponential trajectory since ChatGPT first came to the public's attention.

         So why now? What is special about today that suggests all of this is coming to a screeching halt despite all evidence to the contrary?

         1. john_strinlai · 1790706802 · focus · HN ↗

            >Not once has any of these predictions come true, the pace of progress has continued on it's exponential trajectory since ChatGPT first came to the public's attention.

            do you think it will be exponential forever?

            1. RobCat27 · 1790707722 · focus · HN ↗

               I think we'll eventually hit an information theoretic type of wall with physical hardware and GPUs and need a similar AI breakthrough as well as the development refinement of logical/physical qubits in the quantum computing space with some analogue to the transformer architecture to continue accelerating. However, I think there must be many years of development and refinement that can take place before that paradigm shift to overcome the physical compute wall is necessary. This is just my theory, but I'm young enough that I'm expecting with the rate that we are advancing, I will see AI / LLM analogues developed and run on a quantum computer in my lifetime.

               1. spathi_fwiffo · 1790712719 · focus · HN ↗

                  I think the bottleneck will be the current one.

                  Fabs.

                  Either needing more fabs, new types of fabs, retooling existing fabs.

                  All of that takes years.

                  maybe we can design our way out of that too. But, I suppose that would be the similar breakthrough you are mentioning.

               2. [deleted] · 1790714392 · focus · HN ↗

                  [deleted]

            2. sebzim4500 · 1790724590 · focus · HN ↗

               Eventually the heat death of the universe will come, so clearly any prediction made needs some kind of time frame attached.

               I think it's fully possible that it continues being exponential for decades like Moore's law did (and still is depending on exactly what you measure)

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