Thread

DraftKings is using AI to behaviorally target chronic gamblers

570 points · 432 comments · paimapi

NichoPaolucci · 1790700781 · focus · HN ↗
“Gambling company leans into its target demographic”
I worked with a state lottery that did similar things. Their target demographic was the “every day players” that would compulsively buy at the gas station.
I quit that job because it seems to be morally wrong.
Betting apps are just this taken to the extreme, I feel for people with this addiction but it’s not going away anytime soon.
1. LogicFailsMe · 1790701125 · focus · HN ↗
  Ban state lotteries while we're banning DraftKings IMO. I find I cannot have a productive conversation with anyone who thinks the odds of winning the lottery are higher than winning in the stock market buying total market funds.
  Ah... Got it... The same galaxy brains that think p(foom) has a materially greater value than an epsilon minimally >0 to avoid divide by zero errors believe in lottery tickets. Got it. Explains a lot, thanks...
  1. evilkorn · 1790701623 · focus · HN ↗
    "poor tax" framed by the state to help fund things education.
    SoftTalker · 1790702928 · focus · HN ↗
    And yet somehow education still doesn't seem to have enough funding, despite the lotteries raking in cash.
    twoodfin · 1790704767 · focus · HN ↗
    Education has plenty of funding. Per pupil K-12 spending has grown relentlessly higher than inflation for decades.
    LogicFailsMe · 1790705681 · focus · HN ↗
    And somehow academic performance rarely improves and at a guess that's because raw spending is the wrong metric...
    <a href="https://www.americanexperiment.org/study-finds-weak-relationship-between-spending-and-academic-outcomes/" rel="nofollow">https://www.americanexperiment.org/study-finds-weak-relation...
    triceratops · 1790703758 · focus · HN ↗
    It would be fairer if the state returned the money to taxpayers and funded education out of the general fund.
  2. gambiting · 1790702135 · focus · HN ↗
    Well, aren't they though, technically?
    Your $1 lottery coupon has extremely low chances of winning a million dollars, but they aren't zero. No one will sell you any stocks for $1, but even if they did what is a chance of a random $1 stock increasing in value one million times?
    toast0 · 1790703699 · focus · HN ↗
    > No one will sell you any stocks for $1,
    You have been able to buy mutual funds in dollar increments for like forever, with the significant caveat that there's often a minimum purchase amount, but once you hold that you can add in single dollars if you want +/- they only deal in a certain number of decimals.
    Fractional share trading of stocks and ETFs happens at a lot of brokers for the past several years, too. Do they really want you to buy $1 of BRK.A? probably not, but you probably can.
    Also, there's like penny stocks. :P
    But yeah, there's no mechanism for that $1 to turn into millions of dollars within a few days. It can happen with a very well timed purchase, many decades, and some inflation, but that's not very exciting.
    prepend · 1790712752 · focus · HN ↗
    ETFs have sold for $1 for quite a while.
    LogicFailsMe · 1790703921 · focus · HN ↗
    Expected return on a total market fund is 9 to 10% annually. Expected return on a lottery ticket is 30 to 50 cents on the dollar.
    Just like AI p(Doom) in the next decade is approximately zero, but we all have to pretend to it's between 1 and 10% so American frontier labs can implement regulatory capture.
    So if what you're saying is you are willing to bet $1 if I give you a 1 in 1 billion chance of winning $1M, I will take that bet. And I will take that bet as many times as you'd like.
    But your best chance of winning $1M? Start with $10M.
    ac29 · 1790711571 · focus · HN ↗
    I dont think the post you are replying to was saying gambling on lotteries is rational. They are just saying the best possible outcome of buying a lottery ticket is much, much higher than buying an index fund (and the average, median, and worst outcomes are much worse)
    prepend · 1790712831 · focus · HN ↗
    The expected return on lottery is -30-50%.
    LogicFailsMe · 1790713435 · focus · HN ↗
    So 30 to 50 cents on the dollar then like I said?

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