Autonomous recursive self-improvement needs to happen. It doesn't have to happen tomorrow, or in 10 years even, but it has to happen sometime in the near future, or we're kinda screwed.
Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI plateus just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans for assisted RSI), but at a point dumb enough that we don't get human-superior AI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.
That seems like an OK future to me? The AI-addled can have their fun, the rest of us can eventually step in to pick up the pieces. I know it can seem bleak at times but the knowledge hasn't evaporated, it's just that (IMO) the less-AI-enthusiastic are stepping back a bit to let the energy spend itself. And "LLMs can't become superintelligence" doesn't imply "self-improving machine intelligence is impossible", for that matter.
What happens if the momentum of us AI-addled outlives the tribal knowledge on the sidelines?
I genuinely fear your scenario -- "AI was good enough for long enough to let the artisans with the knowledge die off" -- now it's idiocracy. :)
Although is this different than people who know how to build and operate a steam engine? I am not certain.
bm3719 · · focus · HN ↗
Why say this? Well, of the plausible futures from here, the worst one is where AI plateus just good enough to make us all useless (or just destroy the pipeline of a critical mass of capable humans for assisted RSI), but at a point dumb enough that we don't get human-superior AI. This might happen or not, but there's no way to predict when something that doesn't exist will, so it's one of those horrors that can keep you up at night. Some of those skeptical about RSI have likened it to the Great Filter.
_dwt · · focus · HN ↗
schmookeeg · · focus · HN ↗
I genuinely fear your scenario -- "AI was good enough for long enough to let the artisans with the knowledge die off" -- now it's idiocracy. :)
Although is this different than people who know how to build and operate a steam engine? I am not certain.