Thread

1. TazeTSchnitzel · 1790689639 · focus · HN ↗

   I guess that demonstrates the concept of “a drop in the ocean”, but turning a massacre of civilians into a unit of energy feels crass at best.

   1. ygjb · 1790690192 · focus · HN ↗

      To be completely blunt, the humanitarian crisis being caused by runaway fossil fuel use is tantamount to massacre of civilians.

      The death toll from Hiroshima was between 90-160 thousand people. The amount of excess deaths due to heat waves in 2023 was around 178,000. There are projections that the El Nino related heat waves could cause up to half a million, and longer term projections grow to 300,000 a year just from heat in the next few years. Just from heat.

      Add in crop failure, ecosystem collapses, and other unexpected disasters, and it's easy to see why.

      It might be crass, but it's mostly poor people and poor countries that are going to be affected.

      1. ch4s3 · 1790692154 · focus · HN ↗

         You're referencing this study[1] ,which is a modeling study, not observational data and it attributes only half of that number to climate change. It also includes this strong caveat:

         "Due to data limitations, adaptation indicators such as access to air conditioning and healthcare resources were not included, and GDP per capita was used as a proxy."

         I'm sure this analysis is directionally right, but it's not defensible to use the 178,000 number. Moreover extrapolating out into the future based on such an analysis seem fraught at best.

         [1]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC7618246&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC7618246&#x2F;

         1. ygjb · 1790695762 · focus · HN ↗

            shrug.

            Sure. There are weaknesses in the study, it doesn&#x27;t change the fact that there was a significant increase in the number of deaths.

            Hiding behind the claims that studies of complex systems are not completely valid because of a lack of rigor in the process or a weakness in the data are easy to overlook when governments around the world (including mine in Canada) are routinely fudging the numbers to achieve political goals.

            People are dying from climate change in record numbers, and it&#x27;s going to get a lot worse, and criticizing the quality of the studies does absolutely nothing helpful.

            1. ch4s3 · 1790699341 · focus · HN ↗

               Im not hiding behind anything, I was pretty clear that I think it’s directionally correct. However 90k deaths out of 8 billion people is not particularly significant. It’s an order of magnitude lower than a typical flu season. It’s roughly 2x the number of US auto crash related deaths, but global. I think you’re making it sound far more dire than it is.

               While it’s important it seems like a tractable problem in a lot of ways, and the study’s lack of data on AC use is a serious flaw.

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