Thread

Climate is accumulating 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs worth of heat per second

60 points · 84 comments · blondie9x

TazeTSchnitzel · 1790689639 · focus · HN ↗
I guess that demonstrates the concept of “a drop in the ocean”, but turning a massacre of civilians into a unit of energy feels crass at best.
1. ygjb · 1790690192 · focus · HN ↗
  To be completely blunt, the humanitarian crisis being caused by runaway fossil fuel use is tantamount to massacre of civilians.
  The death toll from Hiroshima was between 90-160 thousand people. The amount of excess deaths due to heat waves in 2023 was around 178,000. There are projections that the El Nino related heat waves could cause up to half a million, and longer term projections grow to 300,000 a year just from heat in the next few years. Just from heat.
  Add in crop failure, ecosystem collapses, and other unexpected disasters, and it's easy to see why.
  It might be crass, but it's mostly poor people and poor countries that are going to be affected.
  1. timr · 1790690729 · focus · HN ↗
    > The amount of excess deaths due to heat waves in 2023 was around 178,000. There are projections that the El Nino related heat waves could cause up to half a million, and longer term projections grow to 300,000 a year just from heat in the next few years. Just from heat.
    Scary.
    On a related note, annual deaths from extreme cold are estimated at over 4 million per year.
    <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519625000543" rel="nofollow">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254251962...
    (Note: I picked this article specifically because it’s written by people who are desperately trying to find a way to make the heat story sound worse, but still have to admit that the facts are the facts.)
    busssard · 1790691108 · focus · HN ↗
    and due to climate change the phenomenon called "meandering jetstreams" will only amplify. this will destabilize the jetstreams and allow for sudden breakouts of extremely cold polar air even in times when this should not happen. like snow in May...
    timr · 1790691482 · focus · HN ↗
    Sure, sure. More people will be dying of extreme heat, and extreme cold [1]. Got it.
    When the facts don’t support your story, make up a wild new prediction of the future that can’t be falsified.
    [1] ...even though 99% of the world's population lives between -50 and +60 degrees latitude.
    <a href="https://engaging-data.com/population-latitude-longitude/" rel="nofollow">https://engaging-data.com/population-latitude-longitude/
    bryanlarsen · 1790691819 · focus · HN ↗
    More energetic systems are more chaotic. They're not making up facts.
    timr · 1790692070 · focus · HN ↗
    More chaotic, maybe.
    Making long-term predictions of deaths due to inherently contradictory outcomes of long-term fluctuations in those “more chaotic” systems. That’s obviously objective.
    bryanlarsen · 1790692382 · focus · HN ↗
    Predictions are probabilities. Uncertainty in the predictions increases the error bars; it doesn't make them invalid.
    timr · 1790692593 · focus · HN ↗
    Sorry, where were the error bars in the prediction?
    VCFundedGenYer · 1790693377 · focus · HN ↗
    Climate change is real and you need to admit that.
    timr · 1790693801 · focus · HN ↗
    I never said it wasn't. Climate change is real. This particular story of doom is not.
    busssard · 1790782046 · focus · HN ↗
    i never said that. I said sudden cold breaks will happen more frequently later in the year. It might cause (homeless) people to die maybe. But it will be way more catastrophic to food safety.

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