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When oil prices spike, where does the money go?

171 points · 195 comments · thelastgallon

  1. ggm · · focus · HN ↗
    To the extent my superannuation fund (401k, ROTH, IRA, hard to know what people call this in other economies) is invested in oil, it goes to .. me.

    Super funds in Australia, Canada, the US, are now a massive component of capital investment both in the public market and in private equity. Australia's GDP is 2.5T and the super funds are up to 4T or 5T. Thats $trillion. The super funds are bigger than the GDP of the economy they reside in!

    Some funds are just venal machines in the for profit sector. Some are run by boards aligned to union sectors, I am in the tertiary education union backed fund in Australia and it's been in the top 5 performing funds for my entire working lifetime, and given me a comfortable retirement. Most of the injection of funds was from me: I paid between 9 and 12% and on occasion up to 15% of my income into this fund over a 35 year working lifetime. Its accrual is all down to my fund manager, and if they invested in oil and have secured a windfall, at the cost of the future climate risk, thats on me, albiet indirectly. 35 years at the 150+ year 6-7% return in the market, (some say this trend is even older) is several doublings over my working lifetime. Those doublings were driven in .. the market.

    Me here, is 75% or more of Australia. It's not some amorphous unknown nasty corporate investor in a sharp suit, its ordinary people. Oh, the article even points out that they pay out on insurance and capital costs rebuilding the exploded ships and production facilities. Guess who makes money? Thats right, the superannuation funds invested in the re-insurance market (Warren Buffett's favourite!) or in construction companies, public or private. So.. thats me again.

    The money comes to us. Some of us may be in Saud. Sure. The Saudi state pays a huge stipend to its citizens. Some of us may be in Norway. That national investment fund is amazing. Why do you think Norway is now almost completely cut over to private EV drivers?

    I'd love to ideate the hateful oil companies as the victors here but the thing is, they don't simply act like Smaug and sit on a pile of gold coins. Thats not held to be useful by them and their peers. They do shave off FAR TOO MUCH to swan about in those aforementioned sharp suits, but enough of the fat trickles into my hands, to keep me in the manner to which I am accustomed, as a retiree.

    I'm as complicit, and so are "you" for many people reading this.

    1. aleksandrm · · focus · HN ↗
      I wish I could downvote this, because what a bunch of baloney! Unless you have hundreds of thousands, and to be precise millions, invested in oil already, you're not going to see any significant changes to your portfolio. The rich will get richer playing the market, the regular folk are left out as always paying the price.
      1. cpncrunch · · focus · HN ↗
        Anyone can decide to put their spare cash or retirement funds into oil stocks, but I don't think that it's a recipe for getting rich. Renewable energy is rapidly replacing oil, and if the Strait of Hormuz opened and the Ukraine war ended, oil prices would sink and you would end up with huge losses.

        Nobody really gets rich by playing the market. You get rich by working hard and/or starting your own business, and investing in a diversified portfolio of index funds and dividend paying blue chips.

        1. SturgeonsLaw · · focus · HN ↗
          > You get rich by working hard

          Come on now

          1. cpncrunch · · focus · HN ↗
            Hard and smart, with good negotiating skills, in the right industry.
            1. hdgvhicv · · focus · HN ↗
              Let’s assume you work longer and harder and smarter than 99% of people in the USA at $450k a year.

              Let’s also assume you save every penny, you don’t buy a single thing, from food to shelter.

              Let’s assume that inflation is zero, and you work for 50 years at this level from 20 to 70.

              You will have earned $22.5 million.

              Not bad. Remember this is without spending a single cent.

              Now how do you think you get to a net worth of $220m? Or $2200 million? By working ten or one hundred times harder

              You don’t get rich from working hard. You get rich by being rich and letting it snowball. $40k a year in an 8% return for 50 years gets you about the same.

              1. cpncrunch · · focus · HN ↗
                >You will have earned $22.5 million

                Which is rich.

                1. hdgvhicv · · focus · HN ↗
                  This is someone who managed to work in one to the highest paid jobs in the country for 50 years straight without spending a penny on food, education, travel, rent, medical bills, etc, and somehow avoid paying any taxes.

                  And there are people 1000 times richer.

                  The way to may 22m isn’t working this crazy way, it’s to invest in the stock market and try to have a larger slice of everyone else’s work.

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