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When oil prices spike, where does the money go?

171 points · 195 comments · thelastgallon

  1. ggm · · focus · HN ↗
    To the extent my superannuation fund (401k, ROTH, IRA, hard to know what people call this in other economies) is invested in oil, it goes to .. me.

    Super funds in Australia, Canada, the US, are now a massive component of capital investment both in the public market and in private equity. Australia's GDP is 2.5T and the super funds are up to 4T or 5T. Thats $trillion. The super funds are bigger than the GDP of the economy they reside in!

    Some funds are just venal machines in the for profit sector. Some are run by boards aligned to union sectors, I am in the tertiary education union backed fund in Australia and it's been in the top 5 performing funds for my entire working lifetime, and given me a comfortable retirement. Most of the injection of funds was from me: I paid between 9 and 12% and on occasion up to 15% of my income into this fund over a 35 year working lifetime. Its accrual is all down to my fund manager, and if they invested in oil and have secured a windfall, at the cost of the future climate risk, thats on me, albiet indirectly. 35 years at the 150+ year 6-7% return in the market, (some say this trend is even older) is several doublings over my working lifetime. Those doublings were driven in .. the market.

    Me here, is 75% or more of Australia. It's not some amorphous unknown nasty corporate investor in a sharp suit, its ordinary people. Oh, the article even points out that they pay out on insurance and capital costs rebuilding the exploded ships and production facilities. Guess who makes money? Thats right, the superannuation funds invested in the re-insurance market (Warren Buffett's favourite!) or in construction companies, public or private. So.. thats me again.

    The money comes to us. Some of us may be in Saud. Sure. The Saudi state pays a huge stipend to its citizens. Some of us may be in Norway. That national investment fund is amazing. Why do you think Norway is now almost completely cut over to private EV drivers?

    I'd love to ideate the hateful oil companies as the victors here but the thing is, they don't simply act like Smaug and sit on a pile of gold coins. Thats not held to be useful by them and their peers. They do shave off FAR TOO MUCH to swan about in those aforementioned sharp suits, but enough of the fat trickles into my hands, to keep me in the manner to which I am accustomed, as a retiree.

    I'm as complicit, and so are "you" for many people reading this.

    1. mmooss · · focus · HN ↗
      That's an oddly disconnected fantasy about modern capital ownership.

      Capital, including shares in companies, is greatly concentratred in a few people - the highest concentration in ~ a century. The money is going to those people. You might say they are benefitting from the war.

      A great many other people don't own shares or retirement accounts. Studies show that ~50% of Americans can't cover ~$500 for an emergency (yes, liquid cash is different than a retirement account, but you can borrow or withdraw from it in an emergency).

      1. ryandrake · · focus · HN ↗
        Your comment is now gray (struck a nerve I suppose) but it's right. I hate the tired "The stock market benefits common folks like you and me!" line. It goes unchallenged because it's almost "technically correct" but it ignores proportion. The stock market does not benefit all people uniformly, it benefits people in proportion to how already-rich and already-invested they are. And, at least in the USA, approximately 50% of people don't have any stocks at all, including indirectly through retirement accounts or pensions. So, invested capital benefits about half of us, and disproportionately those at the very top.
        1. cheonic4040 · · focus · HN ↗
          > The stock market does not benefit all people uniformly

          Do you prefer it benefit everyone uniformly?

          Everyone gets the exact same $ dividend whether $100 invested or $100k invested?

          1. ryandrake · · focus · HN ↗
            Nothing in my comment proposed that, but in general, I'd like to see more institutions that benefit people uniformly and equally, and fewer institutions that provide benefits inversely proportion to need.
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