Thread

1. consensus1 · 1790653289 · focus · HN ↗

   The headline is hiding the fact that this was a fairly modest 400K bbl draw for the week.

   1. hedora · 1790654150 · focus · HN ↗

      The reserve is effectively empty at 250M-300M barrels, and currently sits at 284M. The rapid deceleration to 400K could mean that there’s no quick way to keep withdrawing the remaining reserves.

      1. consensus1 · 1790655542 · focus · HN ↗

         I do not buy that the SPR is effectively empty at 35-42% of capacity

         1. californical · 1790659315 · focus · HN ↗

            I asked Claude to research for me so don’t take this as truth but it sounds like

            (a) as the levels drop below 300M barrels, pumping out of the reserve is much less efficient, so we can’t necessarily draw it down as quickly as when it’s full. So the lower it gets, the less useful it is

            And (b) there are a lot of varying estimates for the real effective floor, anywhere from the 180ish to 300M barrels is within the range of a safe minimum level.

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