Thread

1. bix6 · 1790652307 · focus · HN ↗

   So seriously, what is the administrations intention here? They’ve used all the missiles and drained all the gas. Are they trying to get the U.S. invaded?

   1. toomuchtodo · 1790652351 · focus · HN ↗

      Keep fuel prices low enough using the SPR to try to not lose at midterms. They don’t care what happens after, just as they don’t care about their constituents losing their Medicaid.

      The cost of putting unsophisticated grifters in the ultimate position of power.

      ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

      (Green New Deal via incompetence)

      1. bawolff · 1790652691 · focus · HN ↗

         If you want to be unreasonably sympathetic to the trump admin, they could be assuming that iran et al are trying to hold out until the election on the belief that that might change something (see also the timing of houthi offensive and attacks on saudi arabia), and that if trump get over the hump of the election, iran no longer has a way to affect anything short term and will throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term.

         Personally i think trump does not have a plan, but if you tried to sanewash it, i think that is the best rationale i've been able to find.

         1. nl · 1790653242 · focus · HN ↗

            I think the general interpretation that both sides think something will change after the midterms is reasonable.

            But

            > Iran et al are trying to hold out until the election

            > [Iran will] throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term

            is something that I don't think even the most thoughtless parts of the administration really think right?

            It's obvious that Iran is winning, not close to throwing in the towel. The US is reduced to trying to get the Straights of Hormuz open without paying a toll to Iran, which is a worse position than the US was in at the start of the war.

            1. bawolff · 1790654126 · focus · HN ↗

               Its not obvious.

               To be clear, im not predicting an imminent collapse.

               However, countries win wars by projecting strength. Sometimes that is true, and sometimes that is bluffing. It is extremely hard to tell which is which from the outside.

               We do know that Iran was looking shakey prior to this war, and that this war has taken a significant toll, especially economically.

               Will that translate to something? idk. In many ways you would think that if it was going to, it would already have happened.

               However i think sometimes westerners have a very america centric perspective. The costs being suffered here are pretty low for america. Price at the pump is slightly higher. America used up some of its interceptors. That is a pretty low cost. Sure american allies are getting pounded, which has long term impacts, but that is not something ordinary americans will feel. On the other hand Iranians are feeling huge costs, and the longer it goes on, the worse their bargaining position gets (e.g. people frak more, pipelines get built etc).

               All this to say, i dont know what is going to happen, but the Iranian position is fragile, and gets more fragile with time. Anything could happen.

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