Thread

1. bix6 · 1790652307 · focus · HN ↗

   So seriously, what is the administrations intention here? They’ve used all the missiles and drained all the gas. Are they trying to get the U.S. invaded?

   1. toomuchtodo · 1790652351 · focus · HN ↗

      Keep fuel prices low enough using the SPR to try to not lose at midterms. They don’t care what happens after, just as they don’t care about their constituents losing their Medicaid.

      The cost of putting unsophisticated grifters in the ultimate position of power.

      ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

      (Green New Deal via incompetence)

      1. bawolff · 1790652691 · focus · HN ↗

         If you want to be unreasonably sympathetic to the trump admin, they could be assuming that iran et al are trying to hold out until the election on the belief that that might change something (see also the timing of houthi offensive and attacks on saudi arabia), and that if trump get over the hump of the election, iran no longer has a way to affect anything short term and will throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term.

         Personally i think trump does not have a plan, but if you tried to sanewash it, i think that is the best rationale i've been able to find.

         1. nl · 1790653242 · focus · HN ↗

            I think the general interpretation that both sides think something will change after the midterms is reasonable.

            But

            > Iran et al are trying to hold out until the election

            > [Iran will] throw in the towel as they lack the ability to hold out long term

            is something that I don't think even the most thoughtless parts of the administration really think right?

            It's obvious that Iran is winning, not close to throwing in the towel. The US is reduced to trying to get the Straights of Hormuz open without paying a toll to Iran, which is a worse position than the US was in at the start of the war.

            1. consensus1 · 1790653939 · focus · HN ↗

               That is not at all obvious. Iran's Hormuz leverage has proven much less effective than they had originally hoped for and now they are feeling the economic cost of the decision. The SPR is drawing at a rate of 400K bbl/wk over the past few weeks. That's not great, but very far from catastrophic and is sustainable for years at current level of 285 mmbbl. It was recently Iran that tried to get the US back to the negotiating table, not the other way around.

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