Thread

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1982

182 points · 234 comments · thelastgallon

davidw · 1790652827 · focus · HN ↗
I am frankly a bit bewildered by all this. The US administration lies and lies. The Iranians lie. Doomers keep talking about how gas prices will skyrocket "in two weeks". Occasionally the "everything is fine, nothing to see here" folks wheel out some journalist saying there will be a peace deal any day now.
It's pretty difficult to figure out what the reality is besides "not good".
1. hedora · 1790653114 · focus · HN ↗
  Diesel touched $8.99/gal this week. I want to know what happens when the sign runs out of digits at $10.
  Is it tied to the cash register? Will the pumps run out of digits too? Will they still be able to sell gas?
  One thing I can say: My F150 won’t care. It runs off solar.
  1. ghurtado · 1790653737 · focus · HN ↗
    > . I want to know what happens when the sign runs out of digits at $10.
    If you liked Y2K, you're gonna love 2.2f!
    BugsJustFindMe · 1790654196 · focus · HN ↗
    You mean 2.3. Gas prices all go down to tenths of a penny. :)
  2. YZF · 1790654616 · focus · HN ↗
    In Canada gas is priced per liter. Long ago it was under $1.00 and everyone was wondering what will happen when the price goes above a dollar. Then the signs could only do up to 1.99. Then it went over $2. Don't worry. They'll change the signs and the pumps and everything. Cost of doing business.
    Fun fact. Oil and gas prices aren't coupled as much as people think they are. I think these days about 50% of the cost is the oil. When oil goes up it's an excuse to raise prices. When oil price goes down nobody lowers gas prices. There's refining costs, distribution costs, taxes, and oh, let's not forget - PROFIT! (about 20%-30%, mostly for the oil companies, not the gas stations that have pretty low margins). Another thing to consider is that the oil refined into the gasoline you're buying at the pump was not bought at today's future contract prices. You can bet your *%# that the refineries are hedging and trying to keep their costs as low as possible while selling to you as high as possible. Their profit skyrockets when oil goes high. This also influences how much reserves and storage are available. The reserves, oil in transit, and other storage all act as buffers. Point is that's not as simple as it seems.
    I'm so happy that I drive a Tesla. I haven't been in a gas station in years. Switch to EVs guys!
  3. somenameforme · 1790654938 · focus · HN ↗
    The Simpson's had a nice take: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dxVwA7bU2E" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dxVwA7bU2E
2. bawolff · 1790653319 · focus · HN ↗
  If anyone knew for sure they would make a killing at the stock market.
  However we dont know what the future holds. All sorts of factors affect what is going to happen. Will china continue to import less? Will the houthis be able to stop Saudi exports long term or is it just a short term issue? Will USA be able to guard ships passing through the strait? Will Iran face some sort of internal collapse? Will USA pack up and go home? Will other countries be drawn into this war?
  Nobody can tell you what is really "going on" because nobody knows what the future holds and uncertainty is high.
  1. unethical_ban · 1790654550 · focus · HN ↗
    If I knew what I was doing (or asked a clever AI for help and trusted it) I would bet long on a transition off oil. Most countries other than the US are posturing for it, my retirement is in 30-40 years if I stay empoloyed, and I think even America will pick up solar in the long run.
    I don't know a ton about business. But what I realize is companies should not be tied to their methods of their business. An oil company should be an energy company. A car company should be a transit company.
    Tied to the discussion about DHH and Rails this week: I can kind of respect DHH saying implicitly "The days of Rails are waning due to LLMs". He's not attached to a framework, he's attached to an idea of people building apps easily.
    YZF · 1790654979 · focus · HN ↗
    It's happening in the US too. I mean this is the wet dream of climate activists. In Canada we had to put carbon tax on gasoline to get people off it. You're getting it for free man!
    Solar solar solar! The US is perfect for solar. Do more solar. And drive EVs.
    The nation where people drive these ridiculously huge trucks that guzzle gas like no tomorrow is complaining about gas prices. In Europe gas costs twice as much!
    bawolff · 1790658147 · focus · HN ↗
    > In Canada we had to put carbon tax on gasoline to get people off it.
    Just as a note, sadly the canadian consumer carbon tax was killed (the industrial carbon tax remains).
3. somenameforme · 1790654845 · focus · HN ↗
  Check Polymarket. It's vastly more informative than news, let alone rhetoric from any side.
  Everything is hyperbolized, but everything is also true. The Iran war is going horrifically and will likely destabilize oil prices for the foreseeable future. If nothing changes, it'd be catastrophic, but it will change. If necessary OPEC or Russia can be offered sweet deals to stabilize availability, the US could simply sign a favorable (for Iran) deal while waving a white flag emblazoned with "Mission Successful - Nukes Destroyed!" And so on.
  So gas prices will not skyrocket, but they will also not stabilize. The current US administration will likely do poorly in the midterms, but that will probably change much less than might be expected. The political establishment loves war, and a war that's going badly puts them in a favorable position for a follow-up victory in 2028, which will otherwise be much closer to a typical coinflip. Though even with the Iran War still ongoing, it'd probably be a coinflip. Yay for polarization.
  Anyhow, yeah. The world doesn't end with a bang, but a whimper.
  1. overfeed · 1790657580 · focus · HN ↗
    > US could simply sign a favorable (for Iran) deal while waving a white flag emblazoned with "Mission Successful
    Trump is constitutionally[1] unable to do that. He cant compromise or look weak, or it'll conjure the ghost of Fred Trump calling him a loser one more time. Ironically, this fear of losing is how becomes a loser: first against(!) Covid-19, when he thought wearing a mask made him look weak, and now against Iran.
    1. His make up, not the document
    somenameforme · 1790658097 · focus · HN ↗
    It'll be framed as a victory with some long speech about how we've secured the nukes, guaranteed the safety of the free world, liberty, democracy, blah blah blah.
4. culi · 1790701444 · focus · HN ↗
  Gas has already skyrocketed
  <a href="https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts" rel="nofollow">https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
  It was higher in price at the peak of the Russia-Ukraine disruptions but that's because it was already coming off Covid-related supply chain disruptions. It rose more from Iran war than it did from the Russia war.
  1. davidw · 1790793648 · focus · HN ↗
    Ok, but if the SPR runs out... that would be a much larger spike, right? That's what some of the doomers keep talking about. Maybe they're correct... I don't know.

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