‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

Scientists solve 1840s space weather mystery

128 points · 57 comments · gumby

  1. pinkmuffinere · · focus · HN ↗
    > Were a similarly intense geomagnetic storm to occur today, it would likely seriously damage the electrical power grid, causing widespread outages and blackouts, as well as disrupting satellite communications.

    Is this really true? I’m suspicious for a few reasons:

    1. If it were true, I expect it would be a national security concern, and quickly remedied

    2. While there is a lot more dependence on electrical connections, there’s also many more sources of disturbance now. So I suspect some of the failure modes are tested by “normal” human activity

    3. EMI is a known risk, in my previous job we actively tested and built for it. I suppose if the limits are inappropriately set , or if this sort of testing isn’t wide spread, it could still be an issue.

    4. As long as there’s a neutral line, i think any common mode should be rejected, in which case this should be fine?

    1. gaigalas · · focus · HN ↗
      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.gov&#x2F;noaa-scales-explanation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.gov&#x2F;noaa-scales-explanation

      Here are some of the risks that are currently unfeasible to mitigate:

      G5:

      &gt; Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

      S5:

      &gt; Satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible.

      ---

      One extremely unlucky solar event can set us back for years, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to prepare for it long term. Our best predictive models give us a couple of days notice.

      In a sense, we&#x27;re more prepared for an asteroid collision (not by much) than a solar event.

      1. bethekidyouwant · · focus · HN ↗
        I don’t get it will the x-rays damage the power infrastructure? or only the solar storm afterwards? because we know when a solar storm is coming hours out so we can just turn everything off..
        1. gaigalas · · focus · HN ↗
          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.gov&#x2F;impacts" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.spaceweather.gov&#x2F;impacts

          &quot;Turning things off&quot; is not enough, by the way. A transformer doesn&#x27;t need to be operating (delivering power) to be damaged by a geomagnetic storm. If it is connected, or not properly isolated or not properly grounded, it can be affected.

          The X-Rays mostly disturb the ionosphere, affeting communications. It causes radio blackouts. CMEs (which can co-occur or occur separately with flares) are a burp of charged particles that are most dangerous to equipment when they hit Earth. The largest the burp and largest intersection with Earth&#x27;s trajectory, the stronger the event and its effects.

          1. bethekidyouwant · · focus · HN ↗
            I don’t really understand the purpose of the linked article but you can disconnect the transformers from the grid via software which, if they were already turning off all the power generating stations to mitigate the damage of a Carrington level event they would certainly do as well..
            1. gaigalas · · focus · HN ↗
              Can you elaborate a little more on this software switch?
              1. bethekidyouwant · · focus · HN ↗
                You press a button on a computer and then somewhere in the physical world a real thing moves.. (that being a fat disconnect switch)
                1. gaigalas · · focus · HN ↗
                  You need to elaborate more. Does the thing move with electric motors? If so, how are they powered and how is the switch back on process? Etc.

                  So far, your description of the solution just doesn&#x27;t solve the problem.

                  1. bethekidyouwant · · focus · HN ↗
                    A literal man doesn’t need to go and flip a switch in person to disconnect transformers from the grid. As to how they power such a device it was never with transformer level voltage so who cares it’s tangential
                    1. gaigalas · · focus · HN ↗
                      &gt; A literal man doesn’t need to go and flip a switch in person to disconnect transformers from the grid.

                      I never said it did.

                      &gt; As to how they power such a device it was never with transformer level voltage so who cares it’s tangential

                      You do understand the notion of a huge ass sun-burp sized oscillating magnetic field driving a conductor to surge, right?

                      Also, you are suggesting a software kill-switch to the entire electrical grid, with no obvious way to turn it on back again, in the age of cyberwarfare.

                      I&#x27;m not a specialist, but I don&#x27;t need to be one to know you&#x27;re vibe electrical engineering instead of speaking from a place of experience.

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.