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Burning Man death rates – A short lesson in statistics

179 points · 243 comments · viraj_shah

  1. Aurornis · · focus · HN ↗
    Looking at population-level statistics, even adjusted for age, is useless. Going to burning man requires a level of health, energy, free time (not dealing with health issues), and freedom from chronic illnesses that make traveling to a desert a bad idea.

    Most people at high risk of random death are filtered out before they arrive.

    There are so many better comparisons that could have been chosen. Comparing Burning Man to outdoor music festivals would be so much more accurate.

    1. p-e-w · · focus · HN ↗
      > Comparing Burning Man to outdoor music festivals would be so much more accurate.

      It probably wouldn’t be very interesting though, since those are too similar. One or two deaths over a three-day festival with some tens of thousands of people attending is completely normal even in highly regulated environments like the German mega-festivals.

      1. Aurornis · · focus · HN ↗
        The similarity is precisely what would make it an interesting comparator.

        I don't have time to research this fully, but the first few papers that popped up showed that a lot of the casualty events from music festivals are due to incidents like mass stampedes or even motor vehicles, which I suspect would be much lower at Burning Man. On the other hand, deaths from drug overdose or "structural collapse" are probably higher at Burning Man.

        Comparing like-for-like, or as close as you can get, is what enables these interesting comparisons. Pointing out that you're less likely to die of cancer or car crashes while attending burning is not helpful when you compare against population level statistics.

        1. swerner · · focus · HN ↗
          The kinds of drugs people at burning man prefer to take are not very likely to lead to death from overdose.
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