Thread

1. Zigurd · 1790601391 · focus · HN ↗

   Having an impossible critical path will be the demise of the starship project. Too many things have to work that cannot be tested out of order. Too many of those things that needed to work years ago still don't. And those are the easy ones.

   The items I'm listing here are just a subset of the critical path, and each milestone along the way will take months, optimistically, and years more realistically. To the point that starship won't be relevant to moon missions or any commercial use by the time it does what it needs to do to even partially fulfill the plans for it:

   It needs to meet payload specifications. Currently it is off by a factor of two, which sounds doable until you realize the spec is 100 tons, and they need to find 50 tons more capacity by shedding weight elsewhere in the system.

   It needs a launch cadence fast enough so that refueling doesn't take 15 separate starship tankers. Currently it would take years to refuel one single starship to make a one-way trip to the moon.

   There's just a minor milestone on the way to that launch cadence: catching both stages.

   Once both stages are reliably caught after a mission, refurbishment needs to be minimal. Proving that out will take several missions.

   This is a simplified list of items on the critical path, but reaching each of these items has risks, and if those risks prove to be problems to solve, then each of those problems has a list of tasks and tests associated with it.

   Some people think very highly of Elon for proposing technologically elegant solutions. But he's got a really big blind spot for the project management implications.

   1. motionlessveloc · 1790601765 · focus · HN ↗

      Starship's commercial viability rests almost entirely on whether it can orbit Starlink satellites more cheaply than Falcon. Falcon is around $3000/kg, Starship was promised at $100/kg, I doubt even Elon believes that number but it does mean they have plenty of buffer and cutting capacity from 50T to 100T is not the end of the world.

      I agree that the Human Landing System plan for the moon is a shitshow, but it's almost a distraction for SpaceX at this point, and it would not surprise me if the whole program gets axed by whoever comes after Trump.

      1. estearum · 1790602756 · focus · HN ↗

         Its commercial viability (not program success) depends on Starlink launch, sure. But also: that depends on Starlink's viability and value.

         Selling sub-fiber Internet access into a globe increasingly covered in fiber is a silly long-term value proposition.

         1. bluecalm · 1790604765 · focus · HN ↗

            Starlink has about 13 million subscribers today and makes around 500$/year net on average per subscriber. It's still growing fast and will get faster and more reliable. You will also be able to use from your phone quite soon. It can very realistically get to 100 million subscribers which is going to generate 50 billion/year of profit. They have 0 competition in that space. Even if they make half of that it's still a 1 trillion dollar company right there.

            You are saying "sub-fiber" but Starlink will likely be faster for long round trips once enough new gen satellites are deployed.

            That comes before the whole datacenters in space conversation.

            1. chasd00 · 1790623959 · focus · HN ↗

               > You will also be able to use from your phone quite soon

               This, I think, is a much bigger deal than a lot of people realize. A global telephone provider that works in the middle of the ocean or in the middle of the dessert or pretty much anywhere on the planet. The simplification to international travel alone would be worth switching.

               1. fragmede · 1790624314 · focus · HN ↗

                  Apple is currently doing this via Globalstar's satellites for sos messaging.
               2. estearum · 1790628165 · focus · HN ↗

                  Yeah I'll totally spend more than 0 seconds of my life and $0 switching telephony providers so that I can have connectivity when I'm ... checks notes ... in the middle of the ocean.

                  Huge huge untapped market of people just like me.

                  1. bluecalm · 1790663478 · focus · HN ↗

                     Yeah you are not the target demographic. I buy e-sims all the time, have 2 plans from two different countries and I am already thinking about buying Starlink mini (waiting for the new device) because I am often in regions with terrible coverage.

                     So let's call it 50-50?

            2. fragmede · 1790624189 · focus · HN ↗

               Amazon Leo has already launched almost 400 satellites, with expected service 2027 so there's one competitor approaching in that space.

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