Thread

1. iamnothere · 1790563126 · focus · HN ↗

   Cheap energy will do that, statistically. It won’t be cheap for much longer, so enjoy the reprieve.

   1. maxerickson · 1790600593 · focus · HN ↗

      It's gonna get cheaper.

      1. iamnothere · 1790601260 · focus · HN ↗

         Fossil EROI is steadily declining and renewable EROI isn’t as high, in fact it’s much lower when you include battery storage. It’s going to get more expensive.

         1. maxerickson · 1790610131 · focus · HN ↗

            Make sure you aren't comparing the wellhead to the outlet.

            1. iamnothere · 1790624683 · focus · HN ↗

               Good point, it looks like battery-backed PV is comparable when you factor that in. Non battery is definitely cheaper. I was not aware of that.

               I guess it all depends on if EROI estimates hold up over time, how quickly we can scale up on renewables, and how much data centers and reshoring cut into available energy. There will still likely be a crunch going into next year, though.

               1. maxerickson · 1790637072 · focus · HN ↗

                  Renewables are basically an industrial product at this point, they will get cheaper (raw material prices can throw that off, but technology will be working to make them cheaper no matter what).

                  The way I look at it, everyone being better off as far as energy in 2035 is a political and logistical problem, not a fundamental problem.

                  1. iamnothere · 1790642321 · focus · HN ↗

                     But political and logistical problems are real, and they have teeth. Some places will be better off if they can build out in the near future, but some places (including the US) may be too dysfunctional to make the required investment.

                     1. maxerickson · 1790642967 · focus · HN ↗

                        Right, I put it that way because they are real, hard problems.

                        Still, we've come a long way from impossible if we are merely looking at a hard problem.

                        1. iamnothere · 1790643757 · focus · HN ↗

                           It’s not impossible, I just don’t see it happening here before there’s a serious crisis.

                           I also think there’s a chance that costs of renewable construction and replacement go up as fossil fuels get more expensive. Right now most heavy industry and mining relies on fossil power due to portability, energy density, and preexisting equipment. It’s not necessarily going to be a smooth transition, especially in politically dysfunctional countries. The bottleneck period will be difficult.

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