‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

The great crime decline is happening all across the country

43 points · 64 comments · andsoitis

  1. downrightmike · · focus · HN ↗
    Just like abortions in the 70's stopped the super criminals from existing in the 90's. Not having unwanted kids goes a long way to prevent crime. Now we are in the place where people want kids, but can't afford them so they aren't.
    1. searealist · · focus · HN ↗
      I thought we were pretending it was lead?
      1. JumpCrisscross · · focus · HN ↗
        What’s wrong with the lead hypothesis? It explains about 4 to 15% of the effect since 1990 [1].

        [1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC10393136&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC10393136&#x2F;

        1. searealist · · focus · HN ↗
          On the one hand, you have a meta-analysis estimating 7–28% of the U.S. homicide decline, depending on the model, after correcting for publication bias. That’s 4–15 percentage points of a 54% decline.[1]

          On the other hand, you have the Dunedin study, where lead exposure was uncorrelated with measured socioeconomic status, which found weak links with offending overall and no significant link to violent crime.[2]

          In any case, people talk about this like lead was the dominant factor in the violent crime decline, when these results don’t establish that. Even the meta-analysis leaves most of the homicide decline unexplained by lead.

          [1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;eprints.gla.ac.uk&#x2F;332830&#x2F;1&#x2F;332830.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;eprints.gla.ac.uk&#x2F;332830&#x2F;1&#x2F;332830.pdf

          [2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;jamanetwork.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;jamapediatrics&#x2F;fullarticle&#x2F;2666777" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;jamanetwork.com&#x2F;journals&#x2F;jamapediatrics&#x2F;fullarticle&#x2F;...

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.