Yesterday I tried to google "can the Halifax Wanderers still make the CPL playoffs?"
So obviously what appears right at the top is the AI summary, which told me "they've already secured their #4 position and made the playoffs". I knew this wasn't true, and I guess I could have just scrolled down a bit further and found my answer but now I was curious.
So I said "that's not true, they're still #5, what I want to know is _could they still make the playoffs_"
It says they've got an upcoming game against Ottawa, and if they win their chances are good. That game has already taken place, so I correct it again and finally I get a reasonable answer.
My question is: what's the point of the AI in the search engine if it itself isn't going to use the search engine first before answering? Like, I can't wrap my head around that. The answer is on the same page as its hallucination. It could have done a cursory look around before first hallucinating something completely false, and when corrected the first time giving me outdated information. It's meant to be A SEARCH ENGINE!
This is similar to how, not too long ago, LLM's had extreme difficulty counting the number of letters in some words. LLM's don't "think" or "reason" in the normal definition of those terms. They can do some pretty amazing things, but still screw up basic things like telling you something that is obviously wrong and contradicts the top search results.
LLM's, in their present stage of development, are sort of like a crack-addled idiot savant. Sometimes they are obviously insane, and sometimes they seem quite cogent, but you must never trust them implicitly. This may be why they are so difficult to constrain. You could give them something equivalent to the laws of robotics, but following laws requires thought processes they simply don't have.
I'm actually sort of amazed Google doesn't make people accept some kind of butt-covering EULA and post disclaimers about the inaccuracy of results before even showing you their AI's output. Are they not being sued over this kind of thing?
Yip, I've gradually become quite optimistic about the future of LLMs, but the fact that they remain [very] glorified token probability prediction algorithms means that they will probably never be able to achieve meaningful 'intelligence.'
But that doesn't mean they won't be able to do a vast number of extremely intelligent seeming things. There's just so much information out there and any given human can never hold more than the most minuscule chunk of all of it in his mind, so they'll be able to connect lots of dots that we're missing simply because of our limited carrying capacity, but I still don't think they'll ever be able to create fundamentally new dots.
In other words:
- Solving extremely complex mathematical problems requiring extensive knowledge across multiple esoteric and complex domains? Yip.
- Creating math starting from a framework where math doesn't exist in any way, shape, or fashion? Nope.
Ironically, the more complex the cross-domain problems are, the more effective LLMs will seem to be, because you limit the number of humans who have any chance of internalizing everything across both domains, whereas for an LLM there's no such issue. This will create a perception of super intelligence, which will probably where any danger from LLMs would emerge. Doing things like using a token prediction algorithm to make war or other such strategic decisions, because of the misguided belief that it's not only intelligent but super intelligent. It's basically cargo cult logic.
Hugsbox · · focus · HN ↗
So obviously what appears right at the top is the AI summary, which told me "they've already secured their #4 position and made the playoffs". I knew this wasn't true, and I guess I could have just scrolled down a bit further and found my answer but now I was curious.
So I said "that's not true, they're still #5, what I want to know is _could they still make the playoffs_"
It says they've got an upcoming game against Ottawa, and if they win their chances are good. That game has already taken place, so I correct it again and finally I get a reasonable answer.
My question is: what's the point of the AI in the search engine if it itself isn't going to use the search engine first before answering? Like, I can't wrap my head around that. The answer is on the same page as its hallucination. It could have done a cursory look around before first hallucinating something completely false, and when corrected the first time giving me outdated information. It's meant to be A SEARCH ENGINE!
beloch · · focus · HN ↗
LLM's, in their present stage of development, are sort of like a crack-addled idiot savant. Sometimes they are obviously insane, and sometimes they seem quite cogent, but you must never trust them implicitly. This may be why they are so difficult to constrain. You could give them something equivalent to the laws of robotics, but following laws requires thought processes they simply don't have.
I'm actually sort of amazed Google doesn't make people accept some kind of butt-covering EULA and post disclaimers about the inaccuracy of results before even showing you their AI's output. Are they not being sued over this kind of thing?
somenameforme · · focus · HN ↗
But that doesn't mean they won't be able to do a vast number of extremely intelligent seeming things. There's just so much information out there and any given human can never hold more than the most minuscule chunk of all of it in his mind, so they'll be able to connect lots of dots that we're missing simply because of our limited carrying capacity, but I still don't think they'll ever be able to create fundamentally new dots.
In other words:
- Solving extremely complex mathematical problems requiring extensive knowledge across multiple esoteric and complex domains? Yip.
- Creating math starting from a framework where math doesn't exist in any way, shape, or fashion? Nope.
Ironically, the more complex the cross-domain problems are, the more effective LLMs will seem to be, because you limit the number of humans who have any chance of internalizing everything across both domains, whereas for an LLM there's no such issue. This will create a perception of super intelligence, which will probably where any danger from LLMs would emerge. Doing things like using a token prediction algorithm to make war or other such strategic decisions, because of the misguided belief that it's not only intelligent but super intelligent. It's basically cargo cult logic.