If you take the 1998 NAEP 8th grade reading scores by race, re-weight them by the new 2024 demographic makeup of American 8th graders, you will find a predicted point decline of 4.6, rather close to the actual 4 point fall over the period.
Over the same period, reading scores actually improved somewhat for each of the 1998 poorly scoring groups (and quite a bit for Asians), but the poorly scoring groups simply make up so much more of the population now that it drags everything else down.
The challenge here is that you're assuming performance by race should be constant over time. Maybe that's true, maybe it's not, I think a richer analysis with wealth, parental education, english as a first language cofounders might be helpful.
Also if you want to entertain the theory that it is racial/genetic, it'd be important to do that analysis on a continuum since a lot of people who are "minority X" may be more than 50% white or there may be trends in that over time.
> Doesn't it strike you that poor Hispanic reading performance might actually be largely related to Spanish vs. English-language proficiency?
Hispanic != non-native English speaker
There is pretty clearly something going on that causes the results upthread, but there is nowhere near enough data in this thread to figure out what it is.
Pew Research Center says that over this period, 2000 to 2024, 78% (2000) to 68% (2024) of Hispanics spoke Spanish at home. To me, that sounds more than sufficient to explain a 20pt NAEP 8th-grade reading gap.
FWIW, until 2024, the US treated the state of being Hispanic differently from race, which seems like it could be a confounding factor. (Not that I believe that it explains any of the educational outcome data, but it’s still bizarre and IMO messy.) Here’s the updated guidance:
That's real. Asians show a massive (compared to anything else that moved) NAEP score increase over the 25-year period, which is presumably tied to changing English-language competency as a group. It matters less for the overall average score as their population share is much smaller.
If you want more data on something or other, you should state the hypothesis that you are trying to test. Mine is pretty simple and was easy to test like I did in the first post: in a world of mostly static in-group NAEP 8th-grade reading scores (like the one we live in) large shifts in population shares (like we see) dominate the overall average.
romaaeterna · · focus · HN ↗
Over the same period, reading scores actually improved somewhat for each of the 1998 poorly scoring groups (and quite a bit for Asians), but the poorly scoring groups simply make up so much more of the population now that it drags everything else down.
| Group | 1998 NAEP | 2024 NAEP | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| White | *268* | *266* | −2 |
| Black | *242* | *243* | +1 |
| Hispanic | *241* | *245* | +4 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | *261* | *280* | +19 |
| All public-school students | *261* | *257* | −4 |
| Race/ethnicity | 1999 Grade 8 | 2023 Grade 8 | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| White | *64.5%* | *44.0%* | −20.5 pp |
| Black | 16.1% | 14.9% | −1.2 pp |
| Hispanic | *14.3%* | *29.4%* | +15.1 pp |
| Asian/Pacific Islander* | 3.9% | 5.9% | +2.0 pp |
| American Indian/Alaska Native | 1.2% | 0.9% | −0.3 pp |
| Two or more races | not separately reported | 4.8% | — |
zug_zug · · focus · HN ↗
Also if you want to entertain the theory that it is racial/genetic, it'd be important to do that analysis on a continuum since a lot of people who are "minority X" may be more than 50% white or there may be trends in that over time.
romaaeterna · · focus · HN ↗
You are the person in this discussion invoking race genetics. Why does your mind go there?
yesitcan · · focus · HN ↗
romaaeterna · · focus · HN ↗
Doesn't it strike you that poor Hispanic reading performance might actually be largely related to Spanish vs. English-language proficiency?
amluto · · focus · HN ↗
Hispanic != non-native English speaker
There is pretty clearly something going on that causes the results upthread, but there is nowhere near enough data in this thread to figure out what it is.
romaaeterna · · focus · HN ↗
amluto · · focus · HN ↗
<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/05/01/key-facts-about-asians-in-the-us/" rel="nofollow">https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/05/01/key-facts...
More data is needed here.
FWIW, until 2024, the US treated the state of being Hispanic differently from race, which seems like it could be a confounding factor. (Not that I believe that it explains any of the educational outcome data, but it’s still bizarre and IMO messy.) Here’s the updated guidance:
<a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/03/29/2024-06469/revisions-to-ombs-statistical-policy-directive-no-15-standards-for-maintaining-collecting-and" rel="nofollow">https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/03/29/2024-06...
romaaeterna · · focus · HN ↗
If you want more data on something or other, you should state the hypothesis that you are trying to test. Mine is pretty simple and was easy to test like I did in the first post: in a world of mostly static in-group NAEP 8th-grade reading scores (like the one we live in) large shifts in population shares (like we see) dominate the overall average.