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Plunging test scores are a slow-moving catastrophe

207 points · 414 comments · vinni2

  1. dumberquestions · · focus · HN ↗
    The drop from 2018 to 2022 is as big as the one from 2022 to 2026, so it's not obvious whether AI had a role at all, although it's highly plausible.

    I suspect the bigger culprit is the optimized monetization of human attention, because pre-algorithmic social media doesn't seem to be as destructive. The fact that science wasn't as affected as math and reading (both of which rely more on attention/practice than rote memorization) somewhat supports this.

    1. binlog · · focus · HN ↗
      Hmm, did anything happen in 2020 to disrupt the entire education system?
      1. filoleg · · focus · HN ↗
        Yeah, I am genuinely confused how the grandparent comment just glossed over it.

        I believe that both COVID and LLMs are disrupting educational metrics. But in terms of which one did more short-term scale damage (i.e, within 4 years), I would wager it was COVID.

        1. dghlsakjg · · focus · HN ↗
          Wouldn’t there be recovery? Especially for the cohort that started school after the end of restrictions.

          A continuous decline across both COVID and llms points towards a different causal relationship to me. I would be more likely to believe algorithmic social media or computerized teaching tools are to blame, but that is pure conjecture.

          1. yorwba · · focus · HN ↗
            The cohort that started school after the end of restrictions is not 15 yet, so no recovery can be expected until the 2029 PISA test or so.
            1. dghlsakjg · · focus · HN ↗
              No, but you would still expect to see some recovery 5 years on from students who were much younger when in-person was implemented.
              1. graemep · · focus · HN ↗
                I think its probable that those who were younger were less able to cope and worse affected by it.
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