Thread

1. CamperBob2 · 1790363982 · focus · HN ↗

   Even Russia would be better off today if we'd given Ukraine the tools to beat them back a couple of years ago.

   1. petcat · 1790365076 · focus · HN ↗

      Europe has hard decisions to make about what an end to the war in Ukraine will look like, and whether that means ceding territory. Ukraine is never going to recapture the territory that it has lost without European troops on the ground. Macron famously said that he would "have to send guys to Odesa" and yet 3 years later there are still no French troops in Ukraine and Russia has since captured even more territory and is actively bombarding Kyiv. Europe simply cannot keep carving out $100 billion military aid packages every year indefinitely.

      Tough decisions have to be made and, despite public criticism and posture, every EU leader is secretly hoping USA can broker a peace deal and this all just kind of goes away.

      1. foxyv · 1790368220 · focus · HN ↗

         Getting Ukraine to cede territory is going to be an uphill battle because the last time they did it, our security guarantees meant jack squat. Also Russia is never going to let them join NATO because they fully intend on taking the rest of Ukraine. The only way to keep them out of NATO is to continue the war with them.

         So, if Ukraine cedes the territory, they have just legitimized the Russian claim to that territory while getting nothing in return. This is why talks have always fallen through up to this point. Russia wants Ukraine, Ukraine does not want to be Russian. There is no middle ground.

         1. tim333 · 1790429498 · focus · HN ↗

            There is a middle ground which is kind of happening. Ukraine doesn't get all its territory back as it would be too costly in lives. It doesn't join NATO as that was never that practical.

            However it builds up its military with the aid of partner countries sufficiently to stop Russia.

            That's my bet - it gets frozen with some territory lost but with Ukraine able to defend itself a bit like USSR v Finland. I daresay it could still go like USSR v Afganistan too.

            1. foxyv · 1790612504 · focus · HN ↗

               Why would Ukraine need to cede territory to get military aid they are already getting and _not_ be able join NATO? That would be like trading your back yard to your neighbor in exchange for your front porch not being burned down while the neighbor warms up the flame thrower they used to burn down your shed after you gave them your car to not burn down your shed. You are just giving Russia the time to build up infrastructure and equipment to go at you again.

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