Thread

Zelensky says Russia has widened attacks to hit Ukraine's data centres

102 points · 147 comments · dabinat

dyauspitr · 1790364235 · focus · HN ↗
So what exactly is going on here if they can hit these data centers and refineries and stuff why don’t they do it all at once? I’m talking about both sides. Wouldn’t it make sense to hit every target at the same time and cause as much non-collateral damage as possible at once. Why is it spaced out? Like if Kiev can hit targets in Moscow why not hit every single target in Moscow at once.
1. logicchains · 1790364626 · focus · HN ↗
  There are limits on the rate at which they can produce long range drones/missiles. Like Ukraine produces roughly 10-15k per day drones overall, but only a few hundred long-range drones capable of hitting Moscow, and a single attack takes many hundreds to over a thousand drones because most get intercepted, so it takes quite a few days to build up enough drones for an attack.
2. petcat · 1790364710 · focus · HN ↗
  Russia lost most of its drone capacity when USA destroyed the Shahed factories and stockpiles in Iran and it has taken awhile for them to ramp-up their own domestic production. Both Russia and Ukraine are limited in the volume of drones operational at the same time so they deploy them as they become ready. There really isn't enough at any one time to do large coordinated swarm attacks like you're describing.
  1. m4xp · 1790364908 · focus · HN ↗
    I refuse to believe russia cannot get infinite drone supply from china
    bigyabai · 1790373026 · focus · HN ↗
    They can, at a markup. An imported Shahed-style drone might cost you ~$20,000-30,000 USD if you import it, but building it domestically could bring the costs below $5,000. If your goal is to maximize munition mass, then you use China to supply things like INS systems, engines, Nvidia Tegra boards or camera technology that's harder to build in-house. That's what Russia does with the Geran program.
  2. testdelacc1 · 1790365052 · focus · HN ↗
    Russia has been self sufficient in drone production for more than a year. Not only that, they’ve innovated on the Shahed design by adding a jet engine. Production of drones is not the issue, lack of satellite internet is.
  3. konart · 1790365240 · focus · HN ↗
    Russia had its own production of much improved versions of Shahed many months before the whole USA vs Iran shitshow.
    lostlogin · 1790366994 · focus · HN ↗
    > shitshow
    From a Russian or Chinese perspective it is probably seen as a great success.
    Iran has an economic disaster on its hands but it’s held on and has the US squealing with the Houthi, oil prices and all the destroyed US bases. That may well be seen as a win by some there.
    dzhiurgis · 1790370936 · focus · HN ↗
    China depends on Iranian oil, but so far have been resilient with reserves. IMO prolonged conflict is good as it will start starving China eventually.
    jst1fthsdys · 1790378063 · focus · HN ↗
    Iran is still shipping oil to China. And the west will be dying of starvation by the time China starts to feel it.
3. 2OEH8eoCRo0 · 1790364770 · focus · HN ↗
  You underestimate the number of targets and how much damage one drone can inflict on large infrastructure. Plus not all drones make it.
4. rurp · 1790365036 · focus · HN ↗
  These attacks are complicated and resource intensive, with tactics and countermeasures constantly evolving. Attacks need to happen in large coordinated swarms in order to get past defenses, and arranging dozens or hundreds of different drones to all attack deep into enemy territory at the same time without being detected beforehand is challenging. The successful strikes make the news, but there are many failed attacks that get less coverage.
  Target selection is difficult as well. High value targets aren't always easy to identify and sequencing is important. It took Ukraine years to develop the technology and strategy to have consistent success. They were smart about targeting air defense systems early on which has led to a virtuous cycle where successful attacks make future attacks more likely to succeed. Despite the rampant corruption, Russia has plenty of smart people on their side as well and they are constantly adapting and finding effective ways to counter specific tactics.
5. konart · 1790365137 · focus · HN ↗
  To hit just a few (literally 2-3) targets in Moscow Ukraine launches handrends of drones.
  Moscow is really big and the most secure city in Russia.
  If you want to hit "every target" (which would be way over 100 even if we are talking about huge targets) you have to launch like 50k drones at once.
  Same for Russia. Except it is harder for them to find anything of great value at this point. Most of big targets are already in ruins. Civilian infrastructure is all that's left (not counting places reorganized for drone production here, as they are harder to find). And destroying civilian infrastructure does not play well with what Russia is trying to sell for the audience.
  1. troupo · 1790365722 · focus · HN ↗
    > And destroying civilian infrastructure does not play well with what Russia is trying to sell for the audience.
    They sell "we're only targeting military infra" and "we only escalate after unwarranted escalation by Ukraine".
    They hit Ukraine's energy grid during literally the coldest days in winter. The audience's reaction? "YES LET THEM FREEZE".
    Russia couldn't care less about what they need to sell. They've been hitting civilian infra right and left.
    warkdarrior · 1790366183 · focus · HN ↗
    > Russia couldn't care less about what they need to sell. They've been hitting civilian infra right and left.
    As they should. Russia did not start the war on Ukraine out of some moral imperative, but simply because they wanted to conquer Ukraine. So there is no limit to what they will attack in Ukraine.
    lostlogin · 1790366716 · focus · HN ↗
    As they should?
    And we have seen limits. They toe the line with foreign dignitaries around, and haven’t levelled nuclear plants.
    The recent episodes where Trump has begged Ukraine to go easy n Russian has been a darkly amusing development. ‘No cards’ Zelensky must have enjoyed that.
  2. lostlogin · 1790366476 · focus · HN ↗
    > Civilian infrastructure is all that's left
    Russia hit these targets from day one, as a priority.
    “In total, Russia has attacked more than 3000 health care targets, more than 4000 schools and universities, more than 2.5 million housing units, more than 700 churches, and killed more than 15,000 civilians as of February 2026.”
    <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_attacks_on_civilians_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_(2022–present)" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_attacks_on_civilians_i...
6. Modified3019 · 1790365985 · focus · HN ↗
  There are a few reasons
  They can only produce so many weapons a day, and use most of them quickly, while saving a small stockpile for mass strikes.
  Strikes on Moscow may be “symbolic”, but from Ukraine’s point of view, it’s better to spend limited resources to hit a lesser defended but still important target first.
  It takes time to actually find a target, and then find/take out/exhaust/bypass defenses (which constantly shift). Many drone strikes are basically intended to “feel around” for where defenses are, aren’t, or are light enough to saturate.
  Rather than trying to save up expensive large warhead weapons to try and saturate prime targets in a heavily defended areas, Ukraine is slowly picking away at Russia’s air defense assets, weapons production, and logistics. Russia now no longer has enough defense for complete coverage, and is forced to prioritize certain areas for protection. This means Ukraine now has a much easier time hitting still very important targets outside of Moscow. Ukraine and Russia are now sending hundreds of drone strikes every day at each other of various sizes, with occasional bursts reaching into the thousands.
  We are now reaching the point where Russia can’t even fully protect Moscow, which is why you see an increasing amount of high profile hits on it.

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