Thread

1. ramshanker · 1790428677 · focus · HN ↗

   Happy to hear India got mentioned by the same executive during that conversation. We are just started buying from them. I went to Semicon India 2026, held in delhi last week. The energy was amazing. Really pleasant. all big names including ASML.

   1. roenxi · 1790431375 · focus · HN ↗

      It's is heartening looking at a country like India and thinking that it only seems to be a little behind China on the same trajectory. The little flashes of news as they start settling in to more interesting and high tech industries. Whatever good or evil comes out of their growing geopolitical power at least that is another billion people with a clear enough path to wealth and prosperity.

      1. malshe · 1790438907 · focus · HN ↗

         > a little behind China on the same trajectory

         In my opinion, India is around 30 years behind China. This is unlikely to change for several reasons. However, the primary reason is that no Indian government ever had a manufacturing policy that comes close to China's. The service economy is strong but employs a tiny percentage of the population.

         Most of Indian government spending is on welfare followed by endemic corruption. It leaves very little money for nation building.

         1. shash · 1790442941 · focus · HN ↗

            Thirty? Try more like 10, and that’s only for the advanced nodes. Everything else, we will have capacity coming online soon enough.

            Design, the gap is nonexistent in terms of talent deployed (though we have some way to go to have homegrown product companies). Which puts us roughly where Europe is.

            Also consider, a tiny percentage of the Indian population is a ridiculous number of people. Dwarfing pretty much any other country except China.

            Your last point on welfare and corruption is also false; 35% of government spend is on interest payments (which is kind of normal for most countries?) and 30% is on infrastructure and other capex. Defence is 8% and central welfare schemes plus co-sponsored schemes with the states are only 26%. The point being, while corruption is definitely a problem, it doesn’t significantly come out of the central budget. And welfare is smaller than infrastructure spending even if it’s quite significant (and it better be, in a country like this).

         2. Scoundreller · 1790471053 · focus · HN ↗

            For whatever reason, India had quite a lead on pharma manufacturing and still runs carries its own pretty well
         3. logicchains · 1790489375 · focus · HN ↗

            Indian GDP per capita is predicted to reach $13k (China's current level) around 2050, so closer to 20 years behind.

            1. Shaanie · 1790502673 · focus · HN ↗

               India will as far as I'm aware get hit pretty hard by climate change too, which will be an additional hurdle for them to clear.

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