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Does Georgism work? Five years later

514 points · 522 comments · silveraxe93

  1. skew-aberration · · focus · HN ↗
    I think LVT does have a history in US, e.g Pittsburgh.

    Also Georgism is 100% LVT -> A land tax alone has been the recommendation of many economists before and after George - From Smith, Riccardo, Mill to Friedman. Across classical, neoclassical, Keynesian, Austrian schools. If there's one thing economists can agree on, it's that land tax is better than income tax.

    1. Aurornis · · focus · HN ↗
      > If there's one thing economists can agree on, it's that land tax is better than income tax.

      This is overstating the case by a lot. There is a lot of discussion about land value taxes being efficient for various means, but there are far fewer economists who would suggest that 100% LVT is a good idea.

      It just wouldn’t be popular. It would instantly get filled with holes and exceptions and distorted until it tries to approximate something else.

      Some of the high level economic features that 100% LVT advocates want, like forcing people out of their properties when they become too valuable for other uses, are actually extremely unpopular with people who actually live in homes. You would get a wave of cases where grandma got pushed out of her forever home because the LVT got too expensive and a developer bulldozed it to build a strip mall instead. Under the economic model this is a good thing because the land is being used for its best value, but people actually hate this stuff.

      Land value taxes are also really bad at progressive taxation. The hardcore LVT people think this is a good thing because they talk about taxes as “disincentivizing extra work” but we all know that taxes have never stopped people from earning money. Going full LVT puts us in ridiculous situations where someone who earns $500K for a tech company but works remote from a luxurious house somewhere where land is not valued much will pay almost nothing in taxes, but a family with modest income who works a trades job (which generally requires being close to a population center) will have to live in some form of housing subject to very high taxation, therefore paying a lot in taxes.

      If you still don’t see it, imagine the outrage when people realized that some billionaires are barely paying more in taxes than a family of four in a modest house in a city where land is valuable.

      The more you read about Georgism you more you realize how it’s not as popular with economists as it’s portrayed. There is valuing in taxing land, but we already do that! The debates about eliminating other taxes and replacing them all with LVT is something else, and it’s not universally popular at all.

      1. skew-aberration · · focus · HN ↗
        > there are far fewer economists who would suggest that 100% LVT

        Yeah that's the exact distinction I was drawing. The article says Georgism but talks about land tax in general, which is popular with many non-Georgist economists.

        However, I have to take issue with your example

        1) Land is effectively nationalized under 100% LVT. Worker likely own (the profits of) more land than before

        2) The value of the land where the tradesman works is already used against him, to extract the majority of hte profits of his labor. He already pays the land value tax - to his landlord. From his perspective, the burden changes little while the wealthier lose an avenue to make money without working.

        3) A luxurious house / lifestyle still requires paying land tax on the things you consume (the land of course and notably energy sources, minerals, timber, building materials, etc). The kind of spartan lifestyle required to truly avoid this tax works now too - incorporate as a company and don't pay yourself a salary.

        4) I think very few people care about a $500k salary tech workers, or footballers, or what have you. It's the billionaire oligarchs influencing politics who attract the most attention.

        5) Current day oligarchs derive a lot of their wealth from land and other monopoly rents, not from simply 'working more' or 'contributing more value'. This is resented by many. When people get rich by contributing (relatively more) value, they are usually widely praised

        1. HDThoreaun · · focus · HN ↗
          The majority of Americans own the home they live in. That’s the real issue here. The landlord the tradesman is enriching is himself.

          If you incorporate and don’t pay yourself a salary you still owe corporate taxes.

          People absolutely care about the tax rate techies making 500k are paying. They’ll care even more when the billionaires start blasting the airwaves with ads about how unfair it all is.

          Athletes have the highest tax rate in the country, why do you think people don’t care about their tax rate?

          As far as I know the only tech billionaire with significant land holdings is gates. Zuckerberg and Ellison have big holdings too but not compared to the land per wealth that normal Americans have.

          1. skew-aberration · · focus · HN ↗
            > The majority of Americans own the home they live in

            That's the biggest obstacle but also the biggest motivation for increasing land tax. The number is barely 50% currently and falling fast. Of those 40% are owned outright, the rest have mortgages.

            This isn't even accounting for commercial real estate and farmland. People complain about grocery price gauging where I live but supermarkets are no more profitable than before covid - they don't realize the main expense change has been land rent.

            Once you take out a mortgage you're committed to speculating on that land's future value. If that expectation doesn't pan out, you get a GFC. A gradual land tax would remove some fuel from that fire.

            > If you incorporate and don’t pay yourself a salary you still owe corporate taxes

            Well yes but actually no - e.g 'buy borrow die'. Regardless, my point is avoiding a land tax isn't as simple as living somewhere with cheap land (it requires consuming less), and people (companies) do also avoid income taxes (it doesn't require consuming less).

            > Athletes have the highest tax rate in the country, why do you think people don’t care about their tax rate?

            I've never heard anyone talk about this. If I search 'taylor swift tax rate' vs 'elon musk tax rate' I think it's clear.

            > As far as I know the only tech billionaire with significant land holdings is gates

            Why limit to tech billionaires (who do own lots of land)? The class that specifically didn't make their money from land monopolies, and who pay little effective tax under current system anyway? Trump, Kushner, Witkoff come to mind.

            If you're concerned about taxing tech specifically - well George is one of very few people in the 1800s who genuinely considered the full AI + robotics case.

        2. Aurornis · · focus · HN ↗
          > 1) Land is effectively nationalized under 100% LVT.

          You're close to understanding why people wouldn't like it.

          100% LVT schemes are basically a mechanism for letting the government force people to do things that the government wants. You want to live in your forever home that you and your husband worked for 50 years to afford? Sorry, government has other plans for that land and now it's too expensive for you to keep it.

          The utopian use case that proponents talk about is replacing parking lots with high rise apartment buildings, which everyone loves because it feels like a win for the people and a loss for developers. The more realistic use cases would be much less popular, like the 90-year old couple getting forced out of their forever home because it's close to a substation, which suddenly turned that land into highly valuable property for data centers, which will happily pay those taxes and bulldoze the homes.

          Every time I read a 100% LVT piece it's focused on the parking lots to houses type story. They either ignore the more obvious problems of people being forced out of their homes everywhere for businesses to take over, or they do a hand-wavey thing to say it's all for the greater good and we shouldn't care.

          Every 100% LVT argument turns into an argument against private property ownership and in favor of a central planning type land reallocation, but with the final use case going to the highest bidder.

          People do not actually want this.

          1. hnav · · focus · HN ↗
            This line of reasoning never made sense to me. If the value of the land is going up enough to make an impact on the month to month financials then it makes sense to dip into the equity of the property. Presumably the overall equity still goes up? Beneficiaries still inherit more in fiat terms? What’s the issue here?

            Also datacenters are absolutely not going to be built on ultra desirable land, why would the developer ruin the land value that way?

            1. HDThoreaun · · focus · HN ↗
              Land is worthless under 100% LVT. Your land value going up just means you owe the government more in rent every year, since the government owns all the land rents. The only real solution to this problem is prop 13 I think which georgists hate. Nationwide prop 13(only on homes) + LVT is still probably better than the current system though imo, although it creates a huge incentive to never move
          2. skew-aberration · · focus · HN ↗
            90 year-olds may well have bought land at a bargain and would therefore suffer somewhat under an LVT. It's a transition problem though - since in the 100% LVT world the couple didn't have to work 50 years (and pay vast interest to a banker) to get that house.

            19 year-olds on the other hand already compete with businesses for land (especially corporate landlords - who pay more than datacenter owners) and are losing rapidly.

            You do lose the option of speculation - buy early before a town or region is built up. In the current system, speculation is not an option, it is compulsory.

            Also you can't force everyone out of their houses - people could simply reserve land for residential purposes (as is already the case). It is still a democratic system, after all.

            Finally, western governments already use eminent domain to repurpose land. It's already a part of our system.

      2. tonyedgecombe · · focus · HN ↗
        >but people actually hate this stuff.

        I suspect a lot of younger people would welcome it. Especially in areas where there is a real shortage of family homes.

        1. arwineap · · focus · HN ↗
          Alternatives like aggressive up zoning and development would benefit this cohort and be welcomed as well. It's very natural to welcome things that benefit you
        2. dnautics · · focus · HN ↗
          About half might. But then another half will have dealt with actually moving a confused, possibly suffering from dementia, elderly person, managing all of the affairs (and forgetting to do some, changing health care insurance), creating an unnecessary multiyear fuck you in your life while trying to manage a job and a family, and the policy will get torched.

          Allowing the elderly to stay where they are isn't just about protecting vulnerable boomers, it's about not being a problem for responsible people in the next generation. You could also be one of those no-contact assholes and never have to deal with your parents when they get screwed by displacement, land value tax away.

        3. Aurornis · · focus · HN ↗
          I suspect you're right, in the same way that a lot younger people really like any ideas like blanket student loan forgiveness because they have student loans and are receptive to any idea that involves someone else paying for them.

          Like most ideas in this category, they become less popular as people grow older and build up some of their own assets. I would expect popularity of this idea to fall of sharply around the age that people start buying a home and see their property tax bill go up.

          Practically, this makes it a complete dead end. Much to my lament in every election, younger people don't vote as much as they post online and respond to polls. Older people don't post online and respond to polls as much as they actually go out and vote.

          This is why the Georgism thing always seems popular on niche internet boards, but would never get anywhere in a real political system.

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