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What happens when you analyze your favorite college football team like the CIA?

64 points · 35 comments · adam

MisterMunchkin · 1790374413 · focus · HN ↗
I find it really cringey when people describe a whole intelligent system… and it’s just asking copilot to generate slop.
It didn’t “calculate probabilities”, it just hallucinated slop. The same kind of slop almost started WW3 when a similar “intelligence analyst” system told the US navy to attack China because they were smuggling nukes into Iran. They weren’t, it was all slop. But their system was full of “calculated probabilities” too!
1. adam · 1790385027 · focus · HN ↗
  Not exactly - all the forecast questions get scored so we know how accurate the AI is and how calibrated it is. It's no different than asking a large crowd of humans on Good Judgment Open or Metaculus these same types of questions. Everything we ask eventually happens or it doesn't, and we can score it all.
  1. what · 1790387144 · focus · HN ↗
    Okay. So how accurate is it?

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