Thread

Making the case for Ed Zitron as the last of the great bloggers

19 points · 15 comments · bediger4000

fotcorn · 1790269465 · focus · HN ↗
Maybe not the greatest blogger, but certainly the most wrong blogger: <a href="https://danluu.com/zitron/" rel="nofollow">https://danluu.com/zitron/
Discussed on HN: <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49526069">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49526069
1. dumberquestions · 1790269584 · focus · HN ↗
  Being reliably wrong is indistinguishable from having superhuman predictive ability.
  1. HedonicEscal8r · 1790269896 · focus · HN ↗
    No, it's actually very easy to consistently make wrong predictions. You're imagining a scenario where the incorrect and correct options are symmetric in some way, such as predicting whether a stock will go up or down.
    dumberquestions · 1790272856 · focus · HN ↗
    Yeah it's wrong in a specific way that probably doesn't apply here but I wanted to emphasize how impressive it is to be professionally wrong for so long.
    skeledrew · 1790325424 · focus · HN ↗
    > very easy to consistently make wrong predictions
    Not really. Two cases. If one makes a prediction via some fair random means (flipping coins, tossing dice, etc) then there are consistently the same chances of being right vs wrong at every instance. And if one makes a prediction by actually studying relevant trends (like weather forecasting, etc), then over time it becomes increasingly easier to make right predictions.
    The only route to being consistently wrong is through bias, whether via unfair random means or being deliberately blind to the trends. And those can't be called predictions, by definition.

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