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Oracle cites 'force majeure' to shield itself on controversial data center

155 points · 153 comments · simonpure

  1. bpodgursky · · focus · HN ↗
    Everyone is interpreting this as a sign the bubble is bursting, when the actual story is costs for materials and labor are going up and delays are happening because so many data centers are getting built.

    If Oracle was able to build the data center under-cost and faster than expected, that would be a better sign the bubble was bursting!

    1. toasty228 · · focus · HN ↗
      What does it change exactly? It's not like gas or materials are going to get cheaper any time soon. It can burst for a whole lot of reasons, including the 2nd coming of Jesus or resources price... it's not like people have been calling AI ressource intensive for years right ?
      1. simianwords · · focus · HN ↗
        It changes because the usual story behind bubble is that all demand is fake.

        Stock market valuations measure future revenues. So if the reason is that the demand is so high that we are facing new bottlenecks, it doesn’t imply that the underlying capabilities are fake or that the demand is fake. Just that it’s another hurdle to cross.

        1. georgemcbay · · focus · HN ↗
          > It changes because the usual story behind bubble is that all demand is fake.

          I don't think many people are saying all AI demand is fake.

          People are saying that there isn't as much demand for AI as is claimed by the frontier labs, which is pretty reasonable when you consider Anthropic has been floating the idea that their TAM is $30 trillion, approximately the entire US GDP.

    2. mamonster · · focus · HN ↗
      Right, so the presumably the revenue projections aren't increasing at the same pace and the financials don't make sense anymore. Which is potentially a sign of the bubble bursting.
      1. bpodgursky · · focus · HN ↗
        I mean the literal guidance is that Oracle may not make money on the datacenter by 2028 because they won't be able to turn it on.

        How profitable a datacenter is, is kind of irrelevant to the convo, if you are unable to power it due to material shortages.

        1. mamonster · · focus · HN ↗
          >How profitable a datacenter is, is kind of irrelevant to the convo, if you are unable to power it due to material shortages.

          It isn't irrelevant, because they have to make money to be built. The debt for these projects was already issued, so you have to pay the coupons. If Oracle doesn't pay the developer is gonna suffer on their end.

          1. simianwords · · focus · HN ↗
            Wut? Bubble bursting doesn’t mean bottlenecks can’t exist lol. Bubble can burst if projected revenues can’t be met. Unless you think revenues projected 15 years in future are hampered due to this news, it has nothing to do with bubbles.
        2. uhhh · · focus · HN ↗

          [dead]

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