Thread

1. Shank · 1790247119 · focus · HN ↗

   It feels like it’s very, very risky territory for these activities to be “occurring” in a NATO country. I’m sure everyone else is thinking the same thing, but at what point does Article 5 get invoked?

   1. Havoc · 1790249645 · focus · HN ↗

      That’s exactly the issue. If Putin provokes a measured reaction it’s a win, if NATO does nothing it’s also a win

      The defender is fundamentally at a disadvantage with all or nothing clauses like article 5

      1. bamboozled · 1790250929 · focus · HN ↗

         Europe could respond without invoking article 5 though, so it's not really "all or nothing".

         That's why USA is bombing Iran without everyone else bombing Iran. Article 5 hasn't been invoked.

         1. Havoc · 1790260909 · focus · HN ↗

            > Europe could respond without invoking article 5

            What would this hypothetical response look like?

            1. vegardx · 1790263448 · focus · HN ↗

               The whole doctrine itself is built on the idea that you as an attacker don’t get to decide where the line is. The principle of ambiguity. Russia desperate wants to know where the line is, because they know very well that when they cross it it won’t end.

               This is a fundamental principle of NATO as a defensive alliance, have always been and will continue to be.

               Now you have voices, coming mostly from outside, that are trying to make this out to be a bad thing and to show some kind og weakness in the alliance, when it is one of the core tenants of the alliance itself.

               1. Havoc · 1790268802 · focus · HN ↗

                  None of that answers the question. What does NATO practically do as response?

                  Principles, doctrines, ideas aren’t a response (or even an active decision to not respond)

                  1. vegardx · 1790269945 · focus · HN ↗

                     If Article 5 is invoked NATO responds, and if not, the countries supporting Ukraine already are, with sanctions and military aid that keep increasing over time. Russia wants to know our limits so they can push right up to them, and we shouldn't give them that.

                     1. Havoc · 1790296778 · focus · HN ↗

                        > If Article 5 is invoked NATO responds

                        Yes im asking what that response would be.

                        Say Russia lobs some ordnance at Poland. Kills a kid. Claims it was an accident and definitely totally won’t happen again.

                        What in your mind does a response look like? Find a Russian kid? March on Moscow? Nukes? Air strike? Angry letter?

                        Obviously it’s a test and there is a need to push back but how is the tricky bit. Anything you do would be an overtly action against grey zone deniable action.

      2. falserum · 1790252562 · focus · HN ↗

         Every hybrid attack will increase spending towards Ukraine.

         1. ImHereToVote · 1790252987 · focus · HN ↗

            So hybrid attacks are incentivised for someone else besides Russia.
         2. Havoc · 1790260872 · focus · HN ↗

            Or reduce spending because countries feel the need to station more defences on their own borders

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