Thread

1. Shank · 1790247119 · focus · HN ↗

   It feels like it’s very, very risky territory for these activities to be “occurring” in a NATO country. I’m sure everyone else is thinking the same thing, but at what point does Article 5 get invoked?

   1. jwr · 1790247914 · focus · HN ↗

      It's a typical Russian strategy: gradually increase the intensity of operations, while pretending you have nothing to do with it. That is exactly how war in Ukraine began (way back with the first incursions of "little green men").

      What we have been seeing is this gradual escalation. It's like boiling a frog slowly. Each escalation is too small to trigger a significant response, but after a while you suddenly notice that your country is burning.

      I expect more of this in the near future. I wish the world stopped treating Russia as "just another business partner".

      1. lnsru · 1790248906 · focus · HN ↗

         I am pretty sure every bigger German company has active sales team waiting for the end of the sanctions to fly on the same day to Moscow and continue/start new business. Construction materials, cars&trucks, oil refinery equipment, new deeper bunkers… everything is needed in russia. The west doesn’t see an enemy. Enemy of freedom, free speech and free thinking. Freedom to be a gay or autistic person in public. Euros and dollars matter though.

         1. mschuster91 · 1790249955 · focus · HN ↗

            How are the Russians going to pay us though? Their economy is in shambles, Europe is busy divesting itself from fossil fuels, and their foreign currency/gold reserves are dwindling fast. And Russia as a whole will need to pay serious reparations.

            1. myrmidon · 1790251646 · focus · HN ↗

               > How are the Russians going to pay us though? Their economy is in shambles, Europe is busy divesting itself from fossil fuels, and their foreign currency/gold reserves are dwindling fast.

               First: Gas is gonna stay reasonably valuable for Europe in the near future, even if electrification of personal transport progresses very quickly.

               And there are tons of other valuable ressources Russia has: Nickel, copper, aluminium, steel, ...

               > And Russia as a whole will need to pay serious reparations.

               I don't see that happening at all. Who is gonna enforce that? Ukraine would be happy enough if they just left.

            2. pjc50 · 1790252483 · focus · HN ↗

               > Europe is busy divesting itself from fossil fuels

               Nowhere near fast enough. The number of senior businesspeople who'd sell out the Baltic states in exchange for cheap gas is far too high.

               1. geoka9 · 1790270283 · focus · HN ↗

                  Probably 100% of them. Only they don't realize it won't stop with the Baltic countries either - so no cheap gas even in that case.
            3. jwr · 1790253320 · focus · HN ↗

               The EU pays more than 1 billion EUR each month to Russia for their fossil fuels (more specifically, 1.2bn in August, 1.5bn in July). Countries leading are Hungary, Slovakia, France, Bulgaria and then Spain. And those are just direct purchases that we know about. Fossil fuels purchased from other countries might include Russian flows as well.

               At the same time, much is made of various sanction packages, which are minuscule in comparison to these flows.

               In other words, the EU finances the bombs that will be falling on EU countries in the future.

               BTW, Russia will never pay any reparations.

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