The bitter lesson is finally coming for the self-driving cars. The vision stack, 3D maps, lane selection grammar, occupancy networks, it’s maybe all about to give way to a single GPT looking at camera feeds and predicting the next steering wheel adjustment.
It’s mostly a latency problem at this point. The models are too big to run locally, but given that open-weight models like Qwen already exist, an open-weight, low latency equivalent to Astra can’t be too far out.
As somebody working near the field, I do enjoy the fun of dreaming bespoke vision and autonomy algorithms (if I didn’t, I wouldn’t work in the field to begin with!). But I would drop it all in a heartbeat for a robot that works well. Robust, resilient robots would be such an incredible advance that the ‘how’ doesn’t matter. All of the nonsense from the current AI hype cycle would be worth it if it cashed out in Robots That Actually Work.
I think robotics AI revolution will come just a few years after the knowledge work AI revolution. We already have very promising robotics systems in active development.
And that would be the incorrect conclusion. Yes, cheaper is better, but worse and more expensive is still in the running if your boss doesn't have to deal with the human aspect and the tasks still get done. Early cars were worse than horses, but they still won out because there wasn't the biological aspect to contend with. Think about it, a human has all sort of mushy human crap to deal with. They're going to come in hung over or just tired from the weekend/last night, all sad because their mom/brother/sister/partner got cancer/died and get into fights/trouble with HR over something a coworker did and have lower output. A magic box you can put the same tasks into and get sufficiently good output back out, and not have to give it time off because it's Christmas/their daughter's ballet recital, that you can spin up 30 copies of and spin them back down with no remorse is worth way more than simply being able to pay the box $18/hr vs $20/hr to a real live human. That's why businesses are salivating at the idea of AI/robots. Not because they'll eventually be cheaper.
The robot loses an arm because your factory is unsafe? vs a human losing an arm?
What we're not ready for is replacing GDP as the important metric. There have long been known problems with GDP, and robots are only going to make that worse. A robot maid, purchased once, saves, say 20/hrs a week in household chores. That's a meaningful quality of life upgrade, but doesn't result in the GDP bump that getting a raise and hiring a service to clean your house does.
How do you justify all these data centers when models are becoming good enough to run locally and other models are being directly "burned" into chips (model on chip)? Open weight models are almost as good as the closed ones now and they are free/uncensored.
The only thing DCs will still be need for is training, everything else will be done locally on your own hardware.
Open models are still behind February's Mythos.
Whether they can narrow that gap in the future, or OpenAI and Anthropic widen the gap with access to more compute and their better models assisting in the research process, remains to be seen.
At this time I see no reason to believe these data centers won't be in high demand.
Extremely unlikely seeing what the Chinese have been able to do with the limited resources they have. The creativity in finding improvement such as what deepseek has released is incredible. At this point it's a bet on the looser if you think the open models won't catch up and surpass the closed ones.
valine · · focus · HN ↗
It’s mostly a latency problem at this point. The models are too big to run locally, but given that open-weight models like Qwen already exist, an open-weight, low latency equivalent to Astra can’t be too far out.
sebastos · · focus · HN ↗
SoftTalker · · focus · HN ↗
ForHackernews · · focus · HN ↗
prideout · · focus · HN ↗
SoftTalker · · focus · HN ↗
Marha01 · · focus · HN ↗
sebastos · · focus · HN ↗
VBprogrammer · · focus · HN ↗
Marha01 · · focus · HN ↗
VBprogrammer · · focus · HN ↗
Marha01 · · focus · HN ↗
Is this a serious question? Use your imagination...
SoftTalker · · focus · HN ↗
sejje · · focus · HN ↗
Also to do the things humans don't even want to do.
SoftTalker · · focus · HN ↗
sejje · · focus · HN ↗
I don't want them working for my company, at least. I want my workers safe & sound.
gf000 · · focus · HN ↗
It will surely not devolve into the ultimate class war like Elysium and similar.
sejje · · focus · HN ↗
fragmede · · focus · HN ↗
The robot loses an arm because your factory is unsafe? vs a human losing an arm?
What we're not ready for is replacing GDP as the important metric. There have long been known problems with GDP, and robots are only going to make that worse. A robot maid, purchased once, saves, say 20/hrs a week in household chores. That's a meaningful quality of life upgrade, but doesn't result in the GDP bump that getting a raise and hiring a service to clean your house does.
user43928 · · focus · HN ↗
Not to mention construction, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, logistics...
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AI hype cycle? It's working today.
It's optimizing ML model graphs for me while I type this, and it already cut inference time from 30s to 18s.
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Some people act like there was no way for the AI labs to make back the $800B being invested in data center construction this year.
If we look at global GDP, it's $126T, and even a 5% productivity gain would correspond to $6T.
Is that impossible? Is it guaranteed to all crash? I don't think so.
sschueller · · focus · HN ↗
The only thing DCs will still be need for is training, everything else will be done locally on your own hardware.
This bubble will burst and it will be ugly.
user43928 · · focus · HN ↗
Whether they can narrow that gap in the future, or OpenAI and Anthropic widen the gap with access to more compute and their better models assisting in the research process, remains to be seen.
At this time I see no reason to believe these data centers won't be in high demand.
sschueller · · focus · HN ↗
Extremely unlikely seeing what the Chinese have been able to do with the limited resources they have. The creativity in finding improvement such as what deepseek has released is incredible. At this point it's a bet on the looser if you think the open models won't catch up and surpass the closed ones.
user43928 · · focus · HN ↗
Rumored breakthroughs in efficiency were reported a few times.