‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

Jev Can't Be Calibrated

65 points · 61 comments · alexmolas

  1. kantahayashi · · focus · HN ↗
    I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. The true probability of face 1 is 1/6, but Jev always chose face 1 and the probability it returned was about 83%. I also tested with a fair coin 200 times and got 0.92 probability.

    I did several tests and I think Jev is good at problems with a correct answer but weak at problems about actual probabilities whose answers can't be known at all.

    Write-up: &quot;Jev Does Not Play Dice&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dice&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dic...

    1. lesam · · focus · HN ↗
      So you want the probability that the answer is correct, but Jev is providing the probability that its answer is optimal?
      1. kantahayashi · · focus · HN ↗
        Yes, and TypeSafe itself says Jev returns &quot;calibrated probabilities&quot;, which is the former.

        From TypeSafe docs:

        &quot;Higher probability should correspond to a greater chance that the answer is correct.&quot;

        &quot;Outcomes assigned a probability of 0.2 should occur about 20% of the time.&quot;

        <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.typesafe.ai&#x2F;introduction&#x2F;machine-learning-primer" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.typesafe.ai&#x2F;introduction&#x2F;machine-learning-prime...

Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.