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Jev Can't Be Calibrated

65 points · 61 comments · alexmolas

  1. kantahayashi · · focus · HN ↗
    I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. The true probability of face 1 is 1/6, but Jev always chose face 1 and the probability it returned was about 83%. I also tested with a fair coin 200 times and got 0.92 probability.

    I did several tests and I think Jev is good at problems with a correct answer but weak at problems about actual probabilities whose answers can't be known at all.

    Write-up: &quot;Jev Does Not Play Dice&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dice&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dic...

    1. scotty79 · · focus · HN ↗
      Did you expect it to be good at it?

      Humans also don&#x27;t give a perfect 1&#x2F;n probability when asked for a random number.

      1. formerly_proven · · focus · HN ↗
        Humans give way more random answers than LLMs to questions like &quot;give me a random number between 1-100&quot; (when not giving the LLM any tool calls).
        1. tomrod · · focus · HN ↗
          Typically not! The distribution is not uniform.

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=d6iQrh2TK98" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=d6iQrh2TK98

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