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Jev Can't Be Calibrated

65 points · 61 comments · alexmolas

  1. kantahayashi · · focus · HN ↗
    I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. The true probability of face 1 is 1/6, but Jev always chose face 1 and the probability it returned was about 83%. I also tested with a fair coin 200 times and got 0.92 probability.

    I did several tests and I think Jev is good at problems with a correct answer but weak at problems about actual probabilities whose answers can't be known at all.

    Write-up: &quot;Jev Does Not Play Dice&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dice&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;kantahayashiai.github.io&#x2F;posts&#x2F;jev-does-not-play-dic...

    1. throwaway_7274 · · focus · HN ↗
      If you instead offer probabilities as answers, it picks the right one with high credence.
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