Meanwhile, the 47 Muni bus that connects the Van Ness transit corridor to Caltrain has been “suspended” since 2020, and the extension of Caltrain to the transit center is still unfunded.
I appreciate solutions that meet us where we are, but it’s depressing that we don’t seem to actually have the will to make a sustainable, integrated mass transit plan.
I wonder if something like this could improve the economics of public transport though. Passengers do the bulk of their travel on the well used train line, and then the last part of their trip is covered by waymo which could be more cost effective than running mostly empty busses.
The best formula for public transit is the Rail plus Property business model. In Hong Kong, the MTR Corporation buys up land adjacent to a planned future station, then builds the station afterwards. Then makes money from renting out the properties adjacent to the station.
JR East in Japan operates in the same way: it makes the majority of its profit from the real estate, malls, and hotels it operates adjacent to its train stations.
Did it? I always assumed the US train boom aligned with shipping companies more than land at the destinations, which is why even today cargo gets priority over Amtrak.
Ah yes, the government has never completely botched prime real estate before, nor have they ever botched housing build projects.
Federal and state governments own large parcels of prime NYC, LA, SF, Chicago and other metro land, most of which is underutilized. As an example, they operate or sublease numerous surface level parking lots in those places.
The federal government owns a prime parcel on State Street in Chicago, prime real estate, that is completely abandoned. There are many examples of this.
Your solution is to place this responsibility into the hands of those who have shown complete and utter incompetence across successive administrations?
Yes. My solution is also been shown to work in countries like Switzerland [0], makes the areas around train stations way more livable and return the gains back to the entire populace. I'd even go so far and make the sourrounding area unsellable but leased out for 99 years. Perhaps it's also a mentality difference between EU and US. We guys in the old world aren't (in general) as hypercapitalists or distrustful/follow Reageanismns like “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.”
The problem is that personal vehicles inevitably leads to unsustainable traffic. Now, for low traffic areas, driverless cars might be an acceptable solution. But for busy areas, the geometry of transporting 1M people in cars vs buses is simply inescapable.
What they seem to be designing around here is that you take a self driving car through the low density last mile and then a train through the majority of the route.
If there was traffic along the last mile then it would be a good candidate for a regularly scheduled bus route. But for many areas there isn’t really traffic and not enough trips to jusitify all the bus routes it would take to fully cover the area.
And yes this is all a result of atrocious urban planning, but as a way to fix what already exists it seems promising.
This is assuming all or nothing. More likely they will co-exist.
There are good reasons to have choices. Driverless cars will make more sense if you have a lot of luggage or other cargo to schlep. Elderly people might find it easier. There will be routes that are awkward by bus.
Also driverless vans might make sense on some routes.
It will help if incentives encourage the use of whatever is more efficient.
This is why the main train company in the Netherlands has dirt cheap bike rentals at most train stations. Saves a bunch of last-mile headaches, as a traveller.
I always like being the person that points out that cars have on avg 1.5 passangers.
Meaning a bus (avg size of 2 medium cars) with just 4 people is already a better use of space on the road.
So while well utilised infrastructure might look prettier, the current misuse of infra is so vast that even minor use of public transit would already bring benefits.
Cost per passenger mile for a bus containing 4 people is much higher than for 4 cars, and since road wear scales with the 4th power of axle loading, a bus causes about 1,000x more damage to the road than a car.
It seems like the best solution would be to implement registration fees to offset externalities like pollution and road wear, and have congestion fees for when the roads are busy (including for vehicles such as busses). Then let the price signal decide the optimal mix of vehicles on the road. I think if such a system were implemented, the biggest change in behavior would be people taking fewer car trips during peak traffic hours.
> Cost per passenger mile for a bus containing 4 people is much higher than for 4 cars,
Is it? Total cost of buying 4 cars, maintaining 4 cars, potential piece failure across 4 cars, calculating and distributing gas for multiple stations for the gas to be available for all 4 users, parking for 4 vehicles...
you distribute the cost, but lower it is not. Having a single bus depo, where you fill them up, clean and have pieces that can be quickly swapped and repair across a fleet is much much cheaper.
Also in last mile trips or low usage areas, you can use smaller vehicles (like vans) instead of full sized buses. Which increases the advantages over cars in terms of weight and space and usage.
> since road wear scales with the 4th power of axle loading, a bus causes about 1,000x more damage to the road than a car.
Cars keep increasing in weight, with Mercedes G Wagon going over the ton
and also problems like space, parking and pollution are exponentially more worrying than road repairs. Which can even taken a step further and removed as a consideration with Trains over buses, which should be a final, last mile solutions or for lower density populations where trains might be too cumbersome.
> Then let the price signal decide the optimal mix of vehicles on the road.
When you have set up the ENTIRE system around car use, the price signalising would be entirely disregarded. If you have to get to work, and the only option is to use your car because there is no bus, then the price of the road is unavoidable.
The only possible effect is that the price signal is so loud, that they quit their job as their cost to travel is higher than their earnings. In which case businesses would suffer from only being able to hire people who can walk to work.
You would also be at the behest of lobbyist that can (and have) influenced the system to remove externalities that affect them. And oil and car manufacturing would instantly demolish your legislation making the status quo set itself up again.
And for the price signal to work, it should also be available and legible to suers, so the congestion fees should either change like the stock market (to influence real time usage) which means finding out the cost of travel is very difficult. or set up per hours, in which case essential services, and unavoidable commitments (like taking kids to school) become more expensive without a workable alternative. You can use your electronics after the price surge is down from your electric company, but you cant take your kid to school after "Peak Hour congestion charge" has expired.
Taxis are not efficient or cost-effective for short trips, so they’re not an ideal last-mile solution. I’d rather rent a scooter, personally.
However, if I need to make an appointment on time, or just reduce morning hassles, I take a Waymo, but afterwards, I may be inclined to take public transit in the return direction. Same distance, similar route, but distinct criteria for budgeting time, money, and mental health.
dcrazy · · focus · HN ↗
I appreciate solutions that meet us where we are, but it’s depressing that we don’t seem to actually have the will to make a sustainable, integrated mass transit plan.
Gigachad · · focus · HN ↗
tristanj · · focus · HN ↗
JR East in Japan operates in the same way: it makes the majority of its profit from the real estate, malls, and hotels it operates adjacent to its train stations.
LikesPwsh · · focus · HN ↗
intrasight · · focus · HN ↗
Schiendelman · · focus · HN ↗
threetonesun · · focus · HN ↗
vel0city · · focus · HN ↗
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_land_grants_in_the_United_States" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_land_grants_in_the_Un...
This is a part of why there were so many tiny little towns out West which were essentially just a railroad stop and a few buildings.
8note · · focus · HN ↗
you can get to hong kong or jspan in hours to days. the train boom is about a century away
Gigachad · · focus · HN ↗
Especially if the Waymo data feeds back to the government to plan scheduled PT on the most popular routes.
mitxela · · focus · HN ↗
Uke · · focus · HN ↗
mcmcmc · · focus · HN ↗
ihsw · · focus · HN ↗
[dead]
mitxela · · focus · HN ↗
0xy · · focus · HN ↗
Federal and state governments own large parcels of prime NYC, LA, SF, Chicago and other metro land, most of which is underutilized. As an example, they operate or sublease numerous surface level parking lots in those places.
The federal government owns a prime parcel on State Street in Chicago, prime real estate, that is completely abandoned. There are many examples of this.
Your solution is to place this responsibility into the hands of those who have shown complete and utter incompetence across successive administrations?
Uke · · focus · HN ↗
[0] <a href="https://sbb-immobilien.ch/en/station-surroundings/" rel="nofollow">https://sbb-immobilien.ch/en/station-surroundings/
simiones · · focus · HN ↗
Gigachad · · focus · HN ↗
If there was traffic along the last mile then it would be a good candidate for a regularly scheduled bus route. But for many areas there isn’t really traffic and not enough trips to jusitify all the bus routes it would take to fully cover the area.
And yes this is all a result of atrocious urban planning, but as a way to fix what already exists it seems promising.
skybrian · · focus · HN ↗
There are good reasons to have choices. Driverless cars will make more sense if you have a lot of luggage or other cargo to schlep. Elderly people might find it easier. There will be routes that are awkward by bus.
Also driverless vans might make sense on some routes.
It will help if incentives encourage the use of whatever is more efficient.
Vinnl · · focus · HN ↗
Arkhaine_kupo · · focus · HN ↗
I always like being the person that points out that cars have on avg 1.5 passangers.
Meaning a bus (avg size of 2 medium cars) with just 4 people is already a better use of space on the road.
So while well utilised infrastructure might look prettier, the current misuse of infra is so vast that even minor use of public transit would already bring benefits.
ggreer · · focus · HN ↗
It seems like the best solution would be to implement registration fees to offset externalities like pollution and road wear, and have congestion fees for when the roads are busy (including for vehicles such as busses). Then let the price signal decide the optimal mix of vehicles on the road. I think if such a system were implemented, the biggest change in behavior would be people taking fewer car trips during peak traffic hours.
8note · · focus · HN ↗
is road wear the only cost, or the highest cost to consider of the comparison?
is it even the right comparison, vs a 4 person street car where its running on rails?
is lowest cost even the right thing to optimize for when it might mean people lose jobs?
Arkhaine_kupo · · focus · HN ↗
Is it? Total cost of buying 4 cars, maintaining 4 cars, potential piece failure across 4 cars, calculating and distributing gas for multiple stations for the gas to be available for all 4 users, parking for 4 vehicles...
you distribute the cost, but lower it is not. Having a single bus depo, where you fill them up, clean and have pieces that can be quickly swapped and repair across a fleet is much much cheaper.
Also in last mile trips or low usage areas, you can use smaller vehicles (like vans) instead of full sized buses. Which increases the advantages over cars in terms of weight and space and usage.
> since road wear scales with the 4th power of axle loading, a bus causes about 1,000x more damage to the road than a car.
Cars keep increasing in weight, with Mercedes G Wagon going over the ton
and also problems like space, parking and pollution are exponentially more worrying than road repairs. Which can even taken a step further and removed as a consideration with Trains over buses, which should be a final, last mile solutions or for lower density populations where trains might be too cumbersome.
> Then let the price signal decide the optimal mix of vehicles on the road.
When you have set up the ENTIRE system around car use, the price signalising would be entirely disregarded. If you have to get to work, and the only option is to use your car because there is no bus, then the price of the road is unavoidable.
The only possible effect is that the price signal is so loud, that they quit their job as their cost to travel is higher than their earnings. In which case businesses would suffer from only being able to hire people who can walk to work.
You would also be at the behest of lobbyist that can (and have) influenced the system to remove externalities that affect them. And oil and car manufacturing would instantly demolish your legislation making the status quo set itself up again.
And for the price signal to work, it should also be available and legible to suers, so the congestion fees should either change like the stock market (to influence real time usage) which means finding out the cost of travel is very difficult. or set up per hours, in which case essential services, and unavoidable commitments (like taking kids to school) become more expensive without a workable alternative. You can use your electronics after the price surge is down from your electric company, but you cant take your kid to school after "Peak Hour congestion charge" has expired.
ButlerianJihad · · focus · HN ↗
However, if I need to make an appointment on time, or just reduce morning hassles, I take a Waymo, but afterwards, I may be inclined to take public transit in the return direction. Same distance, similar route, but distinct criteria for budgeting time, money, and mental health.