Thread

1. dyauspitr · 1790146722 · focus · HN ↗

   Polls seem completely useless over the past decade or so. I think betting markets are a better indicator of true sentiment now.

   1. tancop · 1790154757 · focus · HN ↗

      Betting markets are even less representative. People who trade on politics are usually rich conservative men with a risk taking mindset and more likely to be active crypto users or work in finance. It's a totally different user base from normal polls.

      1. gruez · 1790166510 · focus · HN ↗

         The point of markets isn't to recruit a diverse user base, it's to create an incentive structure that punishes bad predictions and rewards good predictions.

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