China will most probably win the AI race in the long run because of one major bottleneck the US has - energy. The electric energy and grid buildout in China has been massive since a long time and there is simply no way for the US to quickly catch up.
No matter how much cash you throw you can't just materialize a 100 nuclear reactors to power the data centers.
The sole reason the Chinese cannot “win” is because ceding more power to agentic AI will eventually reduce the primacy of the CCP’s ideological control.
As these models get smarter they will no longer distribute it openly. Patel reporting this too.
There are real headwinds that I don’t think people have thought through.
From a pure training perspective, yeah they could try to align it with CCP values. But the promise of AI is that it'll unlock an explosion of growth and prosperity. What happens when the CCP no longer becomes seen as the the primary enabler of growth? What happens when people are exposed to greater levels of agency? CCP played with fire in the COVID lockdowns and almost got burnt.
Like Terry Tao recently said, there are nonlinear effects at play. Things are going to get chaotic and I do not have confidence (like the parent comment) of anyone "winning".
margorczynski · · focus · HN ↗
No matter how much cash you throw you can't just materialize a 100 nuclear reactors to power the data centers.
prodigycorp · · focus · HN ↗
As these models get smarter they will no longer distribute it openly. Patel reporting this too.
There are real headwinds that I don’t think people have thought through.
utopiah · · focus · HN ↗
prodigycorp · · focus · HN ↗
Like Terry Tao recently said, there are nonlinear effects at play. Things are going to get chaotic and I do not have confidence (like the parent comment) of anyone "winning".